Published: 9/29/2016 5:55:12 PM

(Note: This article was written prior to football games being played the week of Sept. 29-30)

It’s the midpoint of the 2016 high school football season. Let that sink in for just a moment. We are already halfway done the regular season. Where has the time gone, again?

This week, it felt as if more of the contenders were separated from the pretenders. Not all, but many found separation. There is always a team or two that surprises in the playoffs, but in general we are getting a better feel for who should be making a deep run into the postseason.

Eastern Idaho teams are currently jostling for position with an eye towards the postseason. We are getting a better idea with each passing week of which schools have set themselves up for a deep tournament run. There is much still up in the air and a lot of important games yet to be played.

With that in mind, I’m going to take a crack at predicting the finishing positions for each team - whether they make the postseason or not and which state tournament seed they may take. Your guess is as good as mine on this and I’m sure to be wrong multiple times. I'm sure this might provide some bulletin board material for teams, which I'm completely fine with - it just means that I motivated a team without ever stepping on their field.

Let's get on with Postseason Predictions

The 5A East Idaho conference gets three teams to state this year, including a bye from the play-in round for the conference champion and a home game for the second-place team in the play-in round. See the 5A State Tournament bracket HERE.

The Bees are doing a good job of rebuilding their program under Matt Virgil. In just one year, Bonneville has made plenty of progress and that should continue into next season. They’ve been in close games and lost (see Civil War when leading 7-6 after the third quarter and Timberline when they lost 22-21) and been in close games and won (see the comeback against Minico this past week). Being in those games will help the Bees down the stretch when it comes to conference crunch-time - I’m just not sure it will help them enough to land them one of the three playoffs spots for the conference.

Don’t let the record fool you. It was a tough slate of games for the Rams to open the year as they faced Lewiston, Eagle, and Capital in consecutive weeks. Getting wins against cross-town schools Pocatello and Century is a nice confidence boost, but the Rams need to get on track against 5A opponents. Getting healthy would help their cause too. Their offense seems to be getting stronger and finding their groove. The defense isn’t as feared as last year’s, but they’re still pretty good (losing Aisa Kelemete to injury has hurt that units’ productivity). I don’t foresee any circumstance where Highland doesn’t make it back to the state tournament for the 22nd straight season. The question is will they be the top seed? Madison may have something to say about that. It’s a coin-flip between Highland and Madison right now for my prediction for a postseason finish (with the looming Oct. 6 showdown at Holt Arena still upcoming). The coin says Highland finishes second.

Man, this team has had close calls and bad luck this season. They lost their starting center for the season, they’ve lost parts of their backfield, they’ve lost other starters to injury, they have kids playing in other positions than their primary one, and most of their team is young… not to mention that their last three games could be quite different than the actual outcome. Hillcrest was a couple of shots-to-their-own-foot away from beating Lake City and a second-half-meltdown away from knocking off a ranked Madison squad. A few bounces here, a few less injuries there, and Hillcrest would be in much better shape than they are now - and, even with that, they could still clinch a playoff berth. The flashes of potential have shown for the young Knights - but that potential most likely won’t be seen at the state tournament this year.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago following Madison’s close win over Pocatello that we may not really know who the Bobcats are. Last week, after Madison’s annihilation of Blackfoot, I wrote that we may finally know who they are. This week, I’m writing to tell you that Madison doesn’t want us to know who they are… because none of us actually know. They trailed 21-0 in the first half at home against a fired up Hillcrest squad before switching quarterbacks, running off 29 straight points, and beating the Knights 29-21 (in the driving rain, nonetheless). Which team shows up from week-to-week is anyone’s guess. If it’s the team that destroyed Blackfoot 56-0, they’ll get the top seed from the conference. If it’s the one that showed up against Pocatello or Hillcrest (and let’s give the Indians and Knights plenty of credit for their efforts against Madison as well), they won’t be the top seed. The aforementioned coin-flip prediction between Highland and Madison has the Rams finishing second, meaning the Bobcats snag the conference crown.

The season started out brutally for the Trojans. They lost three straight to Syracuse (UT), Skyline, and Kuna. The offense looked out of sync, the defense was a step slow, and the bounces just weren’t going Rigby’s way. Their fortunes have changed some - they hammered Minico 27-0 and beat Blackfoot in come-from-behind fashion by dropping 20 points in the fourth quarter to win 27-18 (in a nasty rainstorm, no less). The offense has found balance, the defense is now swarming, and Rigby has seemingly found their edge. Now, can they do it against their 5A conference opponents over the next four weeks? It’s going to be tough-sledding every week from here on out… but I’ll stick to my preseason prediction of Rigby making the transition to 5A and making the playoffs this year.

The 4A East Idaho conference this year gets three berths to the state tournament, including a bye for the conference champion and a home game for the second-place team from the conference. See the 4A State Tournament bracket HERE.

Coming into the year, I thought that Blackfoot would be a playoff contender. I still feel that way, although I'm not so sure they'll make as deep of a run as I previously thought. The Broncos looked good to open the year with three straight wins over Snake River, Hillcrest, and Century. But their last two games - a blowout loss to Madison and giving up a 12-point lead to Rigby in the fourth quarter - have me questioning just how far this team can go. Their game against Skyline on Oct. 6 will really show how this team stacks up against one of the best in the state. The remaining schedule has them at Idaho Falls, vs. Skyline and Preston, and at Pocatello. Win three of those games and they're pretty much in. Win only two and the playoff situation gets interesting.

After making it to the state semi-finals last year in their first season with Travis Hobson at the helm, the Diamondbacks have regressed - a lot. Not because of coaching, but youth. When you have to replace practically your entire offense from last year and then add injuries to some key starters before the season ever begins, it's a tough hole to try to climb out of - one that very few schools have been able to do. With their only win coming against Burley (a winless squad, mind you) and getting hammered in almost every other game so far this year, it's tough to think that Century can run the table the rest of the way to put themselves in a position for a playoff berth this year. 

We knew coming into the season that the Tigers were going to be a young group. They have seemingly accelerated their growth and parlayed it into a couple of wins, including a HUGE win against Pocatello in a game that could have postseason ramifications. With three conference games remaining, if the Tigers can win two of them, they will be in good shape for an improbable playoff berth. The problem? As reported by Victor Flores of the Post Register, both of their quarterbacks, Cannon Thompson (fractured hand) and Chase Baker (separated shoulder), sustained injuries against Skyline which limit their ability to play the position effectively. That means Idaho Falls will have to shuffle players around again to fill the void under center - not easy to do five games into the season. Wide receiver Cooper Peterson takes over under center, meaning that the Tigers lose one of their biggest receiving threats. If they can overcome that, they'll be okay. Their Oct. 7 game at Preston will be crucial - if they can beat the Indians, the chances of them making the postseason increase dramatically.

Pocatello did themselves no favors in the playoff race by losing to Idaho Falls on the road. That was one of the games they needed to have in order to make their path to the playoffs easier. After starting out with close losses to Wood River and Madison with a 10-point win over Twin Falls sandwiched in between, the Indians suddenly find themselves in a precarious situation: they MUST win this week against Preston. Theoretically, three wins are needed to secure the last playoff spot in the conference. With one conference game already under their belt (the aforementioned loss to Idaho Falls), Pocatello now has to win three of their next four games - at Preston, vs. Century, at Skyline, and vs. Blackfoot. If they lose at Preston, that means the only way to get to the playoffs is to beat all of the remaining three teams and hope for other teams to fall. Anything's possible, but I don't see that happening should it get to that scenario.

After going 0-9 last season, Nick Hyde and his coaching staff have their team in position to potentially snag a playoff berth. Beating Century last week by three touchdowns was a start, but now the meat of their schedule arrives this week. They have three conference games remaining (with already having lost to Skyline on Sept. 9) and, like I mentioned above, will theoretically need to win two to guarantee themselves a playoff spot unless chaos ensues and there are major upsets by other teams in their conference. The next two weeks are the biggest of the year for the Indians - and both games are at home against Pocatello and Idaho Falls. Win both those games and Preston is probably in. If they lose one, they'll most likely have to beat Blackfoot on the road to make it to the postseason, which is not an easy thing to do.

Everyone is chasing the Grizzlies in the conference. Skyline has yet to have a close game this season, with their lowest scoring output being in their very first game against Hillcrest, a 45-20 win. If you're going to beat Skyline, you're gonna have to outscore them. With the balance they have on offense, that's a tough task. I do wonder if not playing any close games may actually hurt them down the stretch into the playoffs, when things get tighter and more physical. We'll see how it shapes up here in about a month, but there's no doubt that Skyline will be making a deep run in the postseason in my mind.

The conference race this year is INSANE and they haven't even played a single league game yet. Shelley, Sugar-Salem, and South Fremont are ranked 1-2-3 in the most recent media poll, 1-3-2 in the most recent coaches poll, 1-4-2 in the most recent IdahoSports.com poll, and 1-3-2 in the IdahoSports.com Power Rankings. The conference gets two automatic berths to state and is eligible for a third seed with the new 'at-large' berth. If they do get the at-large berth, however, that team who secures it will have to play the Mountain Rivers Conference champion in the play-in round. I don't think there is a stronger conference from top-to-bottom in the state, record-wise. It would not surprise me at all if we end up seeing a second straight Kansas City Playoff to determine seed order at the state tournament - it's THAT close. See the 3A State Tournament bracket HERE.

The Russets, as of this writing, have already matched their win total from last season. We knew that Shelley was going to be good in their second year under Jake Monahan, but some people are surprised that they are THIS good. Monahan told me prior to the season that he thought the road to the state title went through Sugar-Salem. I think that still may be true, although with what we've seen through the first five weeks of the season it could also roll through Shelley and South Fremont too. The Russets have more balance in the run/pass game than any other team in their conference, and I think that may be the difference in the conference title race. Bryon Leckington, Mason Price, and the whole Shelley crew are a team to watch out for - they're the real deal.

Trying to make postseason predictions in the Mountain Rivers Conference is tough... darn well near impossible, in fact. There is a lot to like about all of the teams. South Fremont's advantage is their size in the trenches - they have a lot of it. They can own the line of scrimmage and slow down opponents rushing attacks quite a bit. Their offense hasn't been bad either - Reece Yancey has been a revelation for the Cougars at quarterback, Daniel Coverley has been solid at running back and receivers Steven Zundel and Blake Bartschi have been reliable all year. Can they get the big stops when they need them? If they can, they are firmly in contention at state.

The Diggers made it all the way to the state semi-finals last year and would love to go farther this year. They may well have the tools to do it. Sugar-Salem is running roughshod over most everyone they've played so far while allowing only 6.5 points per game - 6.5 points! Those are state champion-like numbers. The only problem with those numbers is that their opponents combined record is 5-14 with three of those wins being claimed by 2A Declo, meaning their strength of schedule to this point hasn't been very good (not that it's their fault by any means). Their combination of Wing-T and Double Wing offense is tough to stop - it's like the old John Stockton/Karl Malone pick n' roll days with the Utah Jazz (cross-sport comparison, I know)... you know it's coming and it's just so hard to stop. When you have Dylan Pope, Jaron Rose, and the Ingram twins in your offense it's tough to defend - they have so many options. Can the Diggers pass the ball? We'll find out, because they are certainly going to need the balance from that.

The injury bug has hit Teton at the wrong time. With conference play around the corner, the Redskins need to be as healthy as possible. Teton hasn't played a particularly strong schedule with all three of their losses coming to 2A teams in North Fremont, West Jefferson, and Declo. The commonality there? Those three teams all run a version of the Double Wing offense. Who else runs a version of the double wing? Sugar-Salem does. If recent history is any sort of indicator, Teton could run into some trouble, at least with the Diggers. It remains to be seen what they come up with against South Fremont and Shelley. Anything can happen. Unfortunately for Teton fans, I think the Redskins are going to be on the outside looking in for a third straight year. If they were in any other 3A conference in the state, they would make the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, the strongest conference in the state is the one they reside in.

3A South East Idaho Conference

The 3A South East Idaho conference this year gets two berths to the state tournament, including a bye for the conference champion and a home game for the second-place team from the conference. See the 3A State Tournament bracket HERE.

Tony Cade has done an excellent job at resurrecting the American Falls program. The Beavers are starting to find themselves and their identity just in time for conference play. Boone Giulio and Luis Cervantes have been the main guys for American Falls on offense. Three straight wins has to give them confidence heading into the final games of the regular season. The conference is more wide open than it has been in many years. The Beavers game on Oct. 14 at home against Snake River could be the de facto conference championship game (and it will be streamed live on IdahoSports.com). Can they get past the 0-4 Panthers? Snake River's record is deceiving, but if there's a year to win the conference - it's this year. In my mind, it's a coin-flip between American Falls and Snake River as to who wins the conference... it's THAT close. The coin in this case says the Beavers.

Year one under Doug Armstrong has gone as many seasons go for teams with brand new head coaches - lots of excitement and an upbeat vibe, but still taking their lumps with rebuilding a program. The Eagles will be better in coming seasons and I believe they are buying in to Armstrong's plan for the future. Unfortunately for them, that plan probably won't include the playoffs this season.

In this week's edition of 'The Friday Night Flashback', I asked when was the last time that Snake River had started a season 0-4... and I got my answer. Snake River head coach Jeb Harrison shot me a message and said the last time the Panthers started out this slow was 1987 - which happened to be Jeb's father's first year as head coach at Snake River. Jeb then said, "I'm just doing it like the old man did." Well, we all know how Tom Harrison's tenure ended up... a lot of wins and a lot of state titles. The Panthers are going to be fine. They've played arguably the toughest opening four-game stretch among 3A teams in the state. They may not have won a game yet, however they have improved every week, including staying close with Sugar-Salem and South Fremont. Their game at American Falls is going to be an absolute battle. If they can get the offense on track, they will have a shot at repeating as conference champions again.

The 2A Nuclear Conference this year gets four berths to the state tournament, including a first round home game for the conference champion and second place team. The battle for the top three seeds should be very interesting and fun to watch. See the 2A State Tournament bracket HERE.

The Cougars have mowed through their competition in all four of their wins so far this year by an average point spread of 50-3. They've shutout three of their 2A opponents and were within one minute of tying their game against 3A power South Fremont. Firth has great balance this year in their offense and they don't rely on just one player to produce yardage and points. The Cougars will contend for a conference championship and probably will reach at least the state quarterfinals.

Postseason Prediction: second-place in the conference, seed 6B at state tournament.

The last few seasons, the Huskies have tended to start slow for whatever reason before picking up steam heading into the postseason. They opened up with a tough 16-14 loss at Filer, before edging Teton, falling at Aberdeen, and crushing Malad. North Fremont is a run first, run second, run third, and run fourth if necessary kind of team. I wonder how much their lack of a passing game could hurt them in close games. The play of the Huskies defense may make the difference in the end.

It's nice to see the Bulldogs out of the cellar in the Nuclear Conference standings. It's been awhile since Ririe has had any sustained success in football. While their three wins came against weaker opponents, their two losses actually opened my eyes more. They were in striking distance at Aberdeen and at West Jefferson in consecutive weeks. That speaks volumes to me about how fast this program has risen. If this were last year's team, they would have been blown out by both of those teams. Not the case this year. 

You have to feel for the Savages. They've scored 14 total points all year long and have given up more than 170 points in just four games. Salmon is a younger team and are struggling with numbers. It's really tough to see how far they've fallen after being a contender in 3A just a few years ago. As much as I would like to see these kids get a win this season, I don't think it's going to happen.

The Panthers, like the Cougars, are highly ranked in the polls and power rankings and should plan on a long run in the postseason if all goes according to plan. They have some of the biggest linemen in all of the 2A classification and run the perfect offense for it: the double wing. Their next two games will determine the outcome in the conference - at North Fremont this week and at home against Firth on Oct. 14. Win those games and they'll earn a second straight conference crown.

2A South East Idaho Conference

The 2A South East Idaho Conference this year gets three berths to the state tournament, including a first round home game for the conference champion and second place team. While there is only one team ranked from the conference this year (as opposed to two last year), the battle to the finish should be fun to watch. See the 2A State Tournament bracket HERE.

I thought that there would be a drop-off for the Tigers this year due to so many key, quality players graduating from last season's squad. That's not the case at all this year. Jeff Duffin and his staff have built a solid, competitive program over the past few seasons. Since 2014, Aberdeen is 25-4 with two of those losses coming in the state championship game. The Tigers have players that just step up and fill a role when called upon. The 2A state tournament is going to be fun to watch again this year and Aberdeen should make a deep run again.

It's odd that Bear Lake has only played three games to this point of the season, but having only a seven game schedule during the season can be a blessing... and a curse. A blessing in the sense that you get a couple of bye weeks and less physical stress on the players. A curse in the sense that it's one (or even two) less games to be able to work out the kinks and solidify the schemes prior to conference play. Every coach in the conference told me in the preseason that Bear Lake was a team to watch out for and one that could take home the conference championship. I don't see them winning the league title this year, but they certainly could reach the state quarterfinals at the least.

It's been a tough first year for new head coach Rick Driessen and his Dragons. In fact, it's been a rough few years in Malad. Since their appearance in the 2010 2A State Championship game, Malad has a record of 15-32. They've scored 20 total points this year (an average of 4.0 points per game) while giving up 43.6 points per game on defense. Malad is young and they'll improve with time, but that won't include a shot at the postseason this year.

Much like Malad, the Cardinals themselves are stuck in a rut. Soda Springs hasn't had a winning season since 2012 and unfortunately for them, that streak is guaranteed to endure for another year, unless they pull off some major upsets in conference play and make a deep run in the state tournament. The Cardinals have scored 26 total points all year (an average of 5.2 points per game) while giving up an average of 44.2 points per game. Maybe next year is the year that Soda Springs gets their program off of the ground... it doesn't appear to be happening this year.

West Side is one of those power programs in 2A that you expect to be there year-in and year-out despite what their own coaching staff may tell you about the talent they have on their roster. You know that they will be in the mix every single year. After getting blown out by Firth in the opener, West Side has strung together three consecutive wins. I don't foresee any circumstance where West Side isn't in the playoffs. Their road may be a bit harder this year as any first round matchup they would be in involves a team from the Nuclear Conference, but they will be in the mix as always.

The 1A Snake River Conference (which spans Districts 4-5-6) gets three berths to the state tournament this year, including state quarterfinal home games for the conference champion and second-place team. This year's state tournament bracket is a bit different than last year's, since the District 5-6 High Desert Conference was dissolved into the District 4 Snake River Conference this year as a result of Butte County dropping down to 1AD2. The IHSAA decided to eliminate the first round play-in games and allow the 1AD1 schools to extend their regular season to the weekend of Oct. 28. See the 1AD1 State Tournament bracket HERE.

(Note: this section will only cover the two eastern Idaho teams from the Snake River Conference).

Challis surprised me to open the season, defeating perennial 1AD2 contender Carey on the road. But the bigger surprise was Challis coming within one foot of upsetting defending state champion Valley. T.T. Cain and his staff have done a marvellous job of rebuilding this group of players from the 0-8 season they posted last year. They just look VERY different - almost like they expect to win everytime they take the field. The defense has been a huge difference. A tough schedule remains, with games against Glenns Ferry, Oakley and Grace, but if they can beat those three schools they will have a ticket punched to the state tournament... IF they can win.

The season has not gone according to plan for Brandon Sanchez and his team. They lost one of their best players prior to the season due to injury, then lost another against Oakley when he had to be hospitalized due to internal bleeding. The two losses they've had have been costly. If they plan on making it to the state tournament, they are going to have to run the table... they still have to face Glenns Ferry, Valley, and Challis to end the season, no small task for the Grizzlies. I think Grace is going to need some fortuitous luck and some other schools losing in order to make the playoffs.

The 1A Sawtooth East Conference receives fourth berths to the play-in round of the state tournament this year, including an opening round home game for the conference champion and second-place team. See the 1AD2 State Tournament bracket HERE.

The Pirates have done themselves no favors so far when they needed to play their best ball. In games against North Gem, Dietrich, and Grace, the Pirates have shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with turnovers and miscues. Can they regroup in time for the rest of the schedule? They better hope so, or else it's going to be a very tough opening round game in the playoffs.

Clark County really only has one win on the season (against Watersprings) as their first victory came via forfeit against Richfield (who eventually cancelled their season, then opted into a co-op with Camas County). After graduating a large amount of seniors who made huge impacts on the 2015 team, the new group of kids are still trying to find their way. It's taken a lot of time and unfortunately for the Bobcats, their offense is still seeking an aerial attack. Until they find that passing game, opponents will continue to load up the box against them and dare Clark County to beat them through the air.

After getting throttled during the opening week of the season by Raft River, the Cowboys have strung together three straight wins, including a win against preseason favorite Butte County. That win gives them the inside track to the conference championship and, more importantly, the coveted 5-6A seed at state which is at the very top of the bracket - meaning that North Gem would have homefield advantage until the state championship. That's huge.

The Bulldogs were winless in 2015, but look MUCH better this season. New head coach Andrew Nelson and his staff have brought new energy to the program and have them on track for a good season. They may even be at .500 by the time the regular season is finished, which would be a great start for the new regime. They may not make a deep postseason run, but they have to be happy about the progress made.

It was tough-sledding for the Warriors before the season ever got underway. Watersprings had to cancel their first game of the year against Dietrich because of a lack of healthy players. They've had a few players get healthy and other ones are now injured. They have 10 total players as of right now, which means two substitutes. It's tough to play, let alone win ball games, when you have so few subs in football. But, they compete every single week to the best of their ability. I almost wonder if the now-defunct Idaho 6-man football pilot project needs to be resurrected for another go-around... I have a feeling there are a few more teams that might be interested in it now.

Postseason Prediction: fifth-place in the conference and miss the state tournament.


Tell me what YOU think about my predictions below! Do you agree? Disagree? Want to rip my face off? Let's hear what you think!