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Hello! And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.
With two precious weeks left before the playoffs begin, two teams (Rigby and Skyline) have officially clinched their conference title and the automatic playoff berth that comes along with it. Twelve more could wrap up league championships this weekend, and we'll outline those below.
In this specific space, we'll handicap the various league championship scenarios for each conference statewide, and we'll also look at the playoff bubble, and which teams could play their way in our out of the postseason bracket. But for a large majority of Idaho teams, they'll be good enough to earn a playoff spot, but not quite good enough to win a league title. But because all six classifications award their berths based upon MaxPreps rankings to some degree, and some teams have compiled such impressive numbers in the rankings, the only question is where they'll end up on the bracket, not if they will get in.
With that said, we're categorizing teams into three categories:
LOCK - These are teams that are mathematically assured of a playoff spot. We will be somewhat judicious in handing these out this week, but will get more lenient with each passing week of action.
WORK TO DO - These are teams that should feel pretty good about their playoff chances, with room to improve their standing with strong performances
ON THE BUBBLE - These are the teams that are either just sneaking in, or just being left out, in our current bracket projections. One good performance can alter the cut line drastically, so all of the teams lumped in here should try and handle business themselves, rather than tempt the mathematical gods at MaxPreps.
Without further ado, let's get to it!
CLASS 6A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (2 automatic bids)
District 3 (6 automatic bids)
District 5-6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (2 bids)
LOCK - Rigby
WORK TO DO - Coeur d'Alene, Post Falls, Rocky Mountain, Eagle, Borah, Middleton, Timberline, Madison, Highland
ON THE BUBBLE - Lake City, Kuna, Mountain View, Owyhee, Meridian, Boise
Rigby officially wrapped up the High Country Conference title last week by defeating Madison, 35-21. With wins already over the Bobcats and Highland, Rigby cannot finish lower than first. Even if the Trojans stubbed their toe against Thunder Ridge in their season finale next week, the Trojans at worst would be tied with the Highland-Madison winner for first place, and the Trojans own the head-to-head tiebreaker over both squads.
Speaking of Highland and Madison, both teams have identical 1-1 HCC records, with losses to Rigby and wins over Thunder Ridge. The Rams will travel to Rexburg next Friday in the season finale, and the winner will grab second place and the auto bid that comes along with it. The third-place finisher will most likely qualify for the playoffs as an at-large team, but because there are only two at-large bids available statewide, things could get dicey if enough high ranking teams from the Southern Idaho Conference suffer upset losses.
So let's go to the SIC. Incredibly, nothing has been decided yet, with just one week of regular season play remaining. Remember:
Week 10 serves as the SIC Championship Game week. The last-place finishers from each division will also play each other, while the remaining four teams from each division playing in cross-divisional games. The cross-division games will look like this:
FOOTHILLS #5 at RIVER #2
RIVER #5 at FOOTHILLS #2
FOOTHILLS #4 at RIVER #3
RIVER #4 at FOOTHILLS #3
The winner of each cross-divisional game receives an auto bid to the playoffs, while the losers will compete with the third place teams from North and East Idaho for one of the two at-large bids available in this bracket.
Let's start with the River Division, as that is the more straightforward division this week.
Eagle is 4-0, while Borah is 3-1. They are the only two teams that can clinch the River Division title, as both Kuna and Mountain View (each 2-2) have too many losses. Eagle and Borah just so happen to play each other this Friday at Dona Larsen Park, in a true winner-takes-all matchup. Obviously, if Eagle wins, they'll finish a perfect 5-0, and if Borah wins, both teams will be 4-1, but the Lions will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Borah's stunning last-second loss to Mountain View last week looms large, though. If Borah falls to Eagle, they could lose a grip on second-place. Mountain View travels to Owyhee on Friday, while Kuna finishes up with Boise. Here are the three possible outcomes that could emerge between Borah, Kuna and Mountain View:
BORAH LOSES, KUNA & MOUNTAIN VIEW WIN - This scenario is the most complex, as all three teams would finish with 3-2 division records. All three also beat each other this season, as Borah defeated Kuna, Kuna defeated Mountain View, and Mountain View defeated Borah. In that scenario, the SIC uses an AZZIE Points System to break the tie. The AZZIE uses the team's point differential in the head-to-head matchups against one another, with a maximum point total of 14. Here's what that looks like:
Borah defeated Kuna 35-7 (+14) and lost to Mountain View, 28-25 (-3). This gives the Lions an AZZIE total of +11
Kuna defeated Mountain View, 21-20 (+1) and lost to Borah, 35-7 (-14). This gives the Kavemen an AZZIE total of -13.
Mountain View defeated Borah, 28-25 (+3) and lost to Kuna, 21-20 (-1). This gives the Mavericks an AZZIE total of +2.
Using the AZZIE points system, Borah would finish second. Then, by virtue of their head-to-head win over the Mavs, Kuna would finish third and Mountain View would place fourth.
BORAH & KUNA LOSE, MOUNTAIN VIEW WINS - In this scenario, Borah and Mountain View would each finish 3-2, while Kuna would be 2-3. Mountain View would take second place by virtue of their head to head win over Borah, placing the Lions third.
BORAH & MOUNTAIN VIEW LOSE, KUNA WINS - In this scenario, Borah and Kuna would each finish 3-2, while Mountain View would be 2-3. Borah would take second place by virtue of their head to head win over Kuna, placing the Kavemen third.
Further down the River Division standings, Owyhee could finish fourth by defeating Mountain View on Friday. Both teams would be 2-3, with the Storm earning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Mavs. A loss to Mountain View would place the Storm fifth. Boise cannot finish higher than sixth, as the Brave lost to the Storm last week. Even if both teams finished 1-4, Owyhee would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. This relegates the Brave into the matchup between last place teams from each division next week.
BUT....that doesn't mean the Brave are eliminated from state playoff consideration. By playing a (theoretically) weaker opponent in Week 10, the Brave could steal one of the at-large bids available. It's mathematically difficult, especially since the Brave are currently ranked 15th in the MaxPreps rankings for 6A football, but Owyhee pulled off this exact same feat in 2022. The Storm finished last in the River Division, played a weak Timberline team in the last place matchup in Week10, and still qualified for the playoffs.
OK, that was the easy division, and it only took five paragraphs to explain.....Moving on!
In the Foothills Division, Rocky Mountain is currently 4-0. Middleton and Timberline are each 3-1 (with the Vikings owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Wolves). Meridian and Capital are both 1-3 (with the Warriors owning the head-to-head tiebreaker), while Centennial is 0-4.
Rocky Mountain hosts Timberline Friday. A win gives the Grizzlies the outright title. A win coupled with a Middleton loss gives Timberline the Foothills Division title. Middleton hosts Capital. A Vikings win, combined with a Timberline loss to Rocky, would give the Vikings second place in the Foothills standings. A Vikings loss and a Timberline win would create a three way-tie for first place. It would be broken by....you guessed it! The AZZIE Points System. Let's review:
Rocky Mountain defeated Middleton 46-17 (+14)
Middleton defeated Timberline 21-14 (+7) and lost to Rocky Mountain 46-17 (-14), giving the Vikings a total of -7
Timberline lost to Middleton 21-14 (-7).
Basically, Timberline would need to defeat Rocky Mountain by 14 points to even out the AZZIE scores. They'd each finish at +7, giving Timberline the nod thanks to the head-to-head win over Rocky. The math says Middleton is out of the running because of the lopsided loss to Rocky Mountain.
Meanwhile, the bottom three slots in the standings will also be sorted out this weekend. Here are the three scenarios which exist:
MERIDIAN WINS, CAPITAL & CENTENNIAL LOSE - Meridian would finish fourth at 2-3, Capital would take fifth at 1-4, and Centennial would finish sixth at 0-5.
CENTENNIAL & CAPITAL WIN, MERIDIAN LOSES - Capital would finish fourth at 2-3, Centennial would take fifth at 1-4 and Meridian (by virtue of the head-to-head loss to Centennial) would finish sixth at 1-4.
CENTENNIAL WINS, MERIDIAN & CAPITAL LOSE - This would create a three-way tie, with all three teams having defeated one another. Let's dust off the AZZIE!
Meridian defeated Capital 56-21 (+14)
Capital defeated Centennial 41-14 (+14) and lost to Meridian 56-21 (-14), giving the Eagles a total of 0.
Centennial lost to Capital 41-14 (-14).
Basically, Centennial needs to defeat Meridian by 14 points. That would create another three-way tie, with all three teams holding AZZIE totals of 0. In that scenario, we move on to the good old-fashioned coin toss, which would be held on the first day following the last regular season contest.
North Idaho's Inland Empire League is a cozy three-team affair consisting of Coeur d'Alene, Lake City and Post Falls. The Vikings took the first step by defeating Lake City last Friday, and a win at Post Falls this Friday would give Coeur d'Alene the outright league title. A loss would open the door for Post Falls to nab the IEL crown, as the Trojans wrap up with Lake City the following Friday. A win by Post Falls over Coeur d'Alene, and a win by Lake City over Post Falls would create a three-way tie for the IEL championship. In years past, a Kansas City Playoff has been used to solve that conundrum.
CLASS 5A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (2 automatic bids)
District 4 (2 automatic bids)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Lakeland, Lewiston, Bishop Kelly, Vallivue, Minico, Pocatello, Skyline, Hillcrest, Blackfoot
WORK TO DO - Sandpoint, Nampa, Emmett, Bonneville, Twin Falls
ON THE BUBBLE - Skyview, Columbia, Ridgevue, Burley, Canyon Ridge, Preston, Shelley, Idaho Falls
This is a large bracket, where 16 of 25 teams statewide get to compete in the postseason. Basically, if you don't make the playoffs in this classification, you've got no one to blame but yourself.
One distinction to this bracket is the fact that the top eight seeds are all awarded based upon pre-determined auto bids based upon district representation. It leads to some funky results, like the 5th team (Lewiston) in the MaxPreps rankings actually being slotted at 9th in our current projections.
Because just about every team has a chance to qualify for the playoffs in this classification, we're a little more liberal with our "Lock" teams. Long story short, the nine teams listed here all have strong enough MaxPreps ratings that regardless of what happens, they'll qualify.
Even the teams that "have work to do" look solid.
Skyline officially clinched the High Country Conference title by virtue of their 4-0 mark in league play. Hillcrest (3-1) is the only team that can catch the Grizzlies in the loss column, and the Grizzlies already defeated the Knights head-to-head. Hillcrest, for their part, has also wrapped up second place. The Knights' only remaining league game is against Idaho Falls (in last place at 0-3), so even with a loss, the worst the Knights can do is finish 3-2. And while both Blackfoot and Bonneville could also finish 3-2, Hillcrest has defeated both of those teams head-to-head. So lock it in: Skyline and Hillcrest are both top eight seeds for the 5A playoffs.
The only team that can officially clinch a league title this week is Preston. The Indians defeated Century last week and a win over Pocatello this Friday would give the Indians the outright title in the three-team South East Idaho Conference. It would also potentially "steal" a bid from another team on the bubble.
Incredibly, Skyview is our last team in right now, and the Hawks picked up their first win of the season last week. Not that it needs to be said, but the 1-6 Hawks should try and bankroll another win to create some breathing room.
CLASS 4A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Fruitland, Weiser, Homedale, Sugar-Salem
WORK TO DO - Moscow, McCall-Donnelly, Kimberly, Buhl, Snake River, Marsh Valley
ON THE BUBBLE - Bonners Ferry, Timberlake, Gooding, Filer, American Falls, South Fremont, Teton
If we're being totally honest here, it feels like this bracket is fairly settled. I think 11 of the 12 spots are more or less decided at this point, but the key questions are:
Where does everyone wind up on the bracket line?
And who grabs that 12th and final spot?
This bracket only awards auto bids to the five conference champions. But, a conference champ doesn't automatically receive a top-five seed. All twelve teams will be seeded according to their MaxPreps ranking, and in our current projection, three of the top four seeds all come from the same conference (District 3's Snake River Valley Conference).
Right now, Teton officially would have the final at-large slot. The Timberwolves scheduled aggressively this year, but an injury-plagued campaign has led to a 1-5 start. Teton finishes their regular season with two league games against South Fremont and Sugar-Salem. They probably need to win both to feel really good about their footing. A 1-1 split would require some other teams being on the wrong side of the MaxPreps math.
Speaking of those other teams, American Falls has gone from "Work to Do" to "On the Bubble" after their 20-14 setback to Bear Lake last week. The Beavers are now closer to the glob of teams fighting for the last two playoff spots than they are to the firmly established top ten. American Falls finishes their schedule with Snake River and Marsh Valley, so dropping both isn't a total disaster, since both of those teams are strong and will help the strength of schedule, but obviously winning out is the preferred method for American Falls.
Gooding fell to Filer last Friday, 20-0, and tumbled five spots in the MaxPreps rankings as a result. A 4-2 record was built on a low strength of schedule, which is really hurting the Senators right now. The last two games against Wood River and Kimberly are must-wins for Gooding currently ranked 17th and on the outside looking in.
As for Filer, the Wildcats finish with a non-conference game against Mountain Home this Friday and a league showdown with Buhl in the regular season finale next week. Filer may need a win over Buhl to propel themselves into the postseason, as they are currently out of our playoff projections.
Other bubble teams this week include Timberlake (vs. Moscow), Bonners Ferry (at Orofino) and South Fremont (vs. Teton). The South Fremont-Teton game is a de facto elimination contest, while next week's showdown between Timberlake and Bonners Ferry could serve as the same.
CLASS 3A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4-5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Aberdeen, Declo, West Side, Firth, North Fremont, Ririe
WORK TO DO - Grangeville, Nampa Christian, West Jefferson
ON THE BUBBLE - Kellogg, Priest River, Marsing, Melba, Malad
Take a look at the 3A MaxPreps rankings, and you'll immediately notice: the top seven spots belong to teams from East Idaho. Incredibly, you would think the upper end would start to hollow out the middle, but all seven teams (Aberdeen, Declo, West Side, Firth, North Fremont, Ririe and West Jefferson) all have such strong strength of schedule metrics, that they continue to lift each other up with each passing matchup. For example, West Jefferson (who could finish fourth in the Nuclear Conference) defeated Central Idaho League favorite Grangeville at a neutral site earlier this season.
The intrigue lies on the cut line of this bracket. The way I see it, there are five teams fighting for three playoff spots. Right now, Marsing, Malad and Priest Rivera are our last three in, but Melba and Kellogg are each close enough that they could leapfrog the teams ahead of them (plus some of this will get sorted out via head-to-head matchups).
For example, Melba hosts Marsing this Friday, while Priest River and Kellogg do battle the following Friday in the regular season finale. Those could both be viewed as elimination games.
So that must mean that Malad, far removed from the elimination contests outlined above, should be feeling good about things, right? Well, it's no picnic these last two weeks for the Dragons either. Malad finishes with a pair of road games at Declo and West Side. Two wins, or even a split, and Malad is in comfortably. Even two losses, if they are close, competitive games, probably gets Malad in. But two blowout losses? That's playing with fire.
CLASS 2A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Kendrick, Logos, Valley, Hagerman, Butte County
WORK TO DO - Kamiah, Prairie, Raft River, Grace
ON THE BUBBLE - Potlatch, Rimrock, Notus, Glenns Ferry, Murtaugh
Here's what I said regarding this bracket a week ago:
This might be the most settled bracket of any classification. We feel confident saying that 11 of the 12 slots are pretty much spoken for, unless something really bizarre happens. The closest teams to the cut line are a pair of 0-6 squads, Murtaugh and Oakley (although the two do play each other this Friday, setting up the chance of an extended run possibly).
Really the only drama here is which teams will win their respective conferences. A first round bye comes along with that. And, in the case of the Western Idaho Conference in District 3, only one team will get in, and that's the league champion. Rimrock is currently 1-0, with seemingly the biggest hurdle, a win over Notus, already cleared. But this league can get hairy and weird, so nothing is settled yet.
And then Murtaugh defeated Oakley in dominant fashion for their first win of the season, and the MaxPreps numbers did something crazy (stop me if you've heard that before), and all of a sudden, the Red Devils are just 2.5 points away from Potlatch for the final spot available in the bracket.
So the question is: could Murtaugh really overtake Potlatch for that final spot? Possibly, but I don't think Potlatch is the team that should be worried. Let's look at Glenns Ferry, who is only 1.4 points ahead of Potlatch and 3.9 points ahead of Murtaugh. The Pilots face Murtaugh this Friday, and the loser of that contest could find themselves behind the other and Potlatch, and on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. This clash on Friday could be an elimination game, which is a frightening thought for Glenns Ferry fans.
Rimrock can officially clinch the Western Idaho Conference title this Friday with a win over Wilder. Even if the Raiders fell to Centennial Baptist in their regular season finale, they would still hold the head-to-head tiebreakers over both Notus and Wilder.
CLASS 1A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - Carey, Dietrich
WORK TO DO - Council, Garden Valley, Tri-Valley, Shoshone, Rockland
ON THE BUBBLE - Lakeside, Wallace, Genesee, Deary, Cascade, Salmon River, Castleford, Challis, North Gem, Mackay
At this time last week, Lakeside was somewhat comfortably in, and Mackay was the final team in, on our projected 1A state bracket. After both teams fell (to Coeur du Christ and North Gem, respectively) those positions have changed. Lakeside is still in, but are now much closer to the cut line, and their margin for error is almost none. As for Mackay, that loss dropped the Miners all the way to 14th in the MaxPreps rankings, which places them behind Cascade, Wallace, Castleford, Deary and Salmon River on the at-large priority list.
Cascade is our last team in now, but the Ramblers have two tough matchups with Council and Garden Valley to conclude their schedule. If they drop both, they may drop off the cut-line, especially if Wallace defeats Lakeside in their regular season finale next week. Because Lakeside lost to Coeur du Christ last week, their earlier win over Wallace holds no weight if they can't defeat the Miners again next week. (For what it's worth, Wallace also needs to beat Coeur du Christ this week to set up next week's winner-take-all championship for the North Star League).
Deary and Genesee are both below the cut line, but one of them will make it thanks to winning the Whitepine League and earning the auto bid. They play each other next week, and as long as neither one stubs their toe this week, it will set up a winner-take-all showdown.
Council is the only team that can officially clinch a league title this week. A Lumberjacks' victory over Cascade would give Council the title and a first round bye during the playoffs.
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