|
Follow @Brandon_Baney on Twitter
Hello! And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.
Just three weeks remain in the regular season, and conference title races are definitely taking shape statewide.
And, while it's true that no team has officially clinched a playoff berth yet, there are a large number of teams who can feel good about their playoff standing. That's because all six classifications award their berths based upon MaxPreps rankings to some degree, and some teams have compiled such impressive numbers in the rankings, that the only question is where they'll end up on the bracket, not if they will get in.
With that said, we're categorizing teams into three categories:
LOCK - These are teams that are mathematically assured of a playoff spot. We will be somewhat judicious in handing these out this week, but will get more lenient with each passing week of action.
WORK TO DO - These are teams that should feel pretty good about their playoff chances, with room to improve their standing with strong performances
ON THE BUBBLE - These are the teams that are either just sneaking in, or just being left out, in our current bracket projections. One good performance can alter the cut line drastically, so all of the teams lumped in here should try and handle business themselves, rather than tempt the mathematical gods at MaxPreps.
Without further ado, let's get to it!
CLASS 6A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (2 automatic bids)
District 3 (6 automatic bids)
District 5-6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (2 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Coeur d'Alene, Post Falls, Rocky Mountain, Eagle, Borah, Middleton, Timberline, Rigby, Madison, Highland
ON THE BUBBLE - Lake City, Kuna, Boise, Owyhee, Mountain View, Lake City, Meridian
Rocky Mountain is 6-0 and has rarely been tested this season. Madison is 6-0 and has been somewhat tested this season. So why aren't they locks? Because each squad still has their most important conference games ahead of it.
The Grizzlies finish the season with Middleton and Timberline in Southern Idaho Conference Foothills Division play. The Vikings, like Rocky, are 3-0 in division play, and the winner of Friday's battle will have the inside track on the regular season division title and a berth into the SIC Championship Game. The winner of each division (Foothills and River) will play each other in Week 10 for the SIC Championship, and regardless of that outcome, both participants will receive byes into the quarterfinal round of the 6A postseason.
Timberline is 2-1 in Foothills Division play, with a narrow 21-14 loss to Middleton a week ago. A Middleton win over Rocky this week, and a Timberline win over Rocky in Week 9, would create a three-way tie for the SIC Foothills Division title. Regardless of what happens, those three should finish as the top three in the Foothills Division in some form or fashion.
Lurking in the shadows is Meridian. The Warriors are just 1-5 this season, and have been on the wrong end of some excruciatingly close contests, falling to Timberline 21-13 two weeks ago, and 31-30 in overtime to Middleton last Friday. Meridian finishes their slate with winnable games against Capital and Centennial, and the Warriors could possibly upset a River Division opponent in the Week 10 cross-divisional games.
That's right, Week 10 not only serves as the SIC Championship Game week. The last-place finishers from each division will also play each other, while the remaining four teams from each division playing in cross-divisional games. The cross-division games will look like this:
FOOTHILLS #5 at RIVER #2
RIVER #5 at FOOTHILLS #2
FOOTHILLS #4 at RIVER #3
RIVER #4 at FOOTHILLS #3
The winner of each cross-divisional game receives an auto bid to the playoffs, while the losers will compete with the third place teams from North and East Idaho for one of the two at-large bids available in this bracket.
So what about the River Division? What's going on over there? Borah and Eagle are each 3-0, with Kuna right behind at 2-1. The Lions just beat Kuna 35-7 last week, while Eagle finishes their season with Kuna on Friday, and Borah the following week. Make no mistake, the River Division race will be decided by Eagle (either winning or losing or splitting) their final two games.
Mountain View is 1-2, while, amazingly, Boise and Owyhee are each 0-3 in the River Division. The Brave and Storm were both playoff participants a year ago, but are both in danger of missing out this season. Someone has to finish last in this division, and the sixth place finisher won't have the opportunity to steal a playoff bid in a cross-divisional Week 10 game. Instead, they'll be relegated to a matchup with Centennial (most likely) in a game that won't improve their MaxPreps stock much.
Let's go to East Idaho, where Madison hosts Rigby this Friday in a monumental battle. Rigby just handed previously unbeaten Highland a 33-3 defeat last Friday, and will have the opportunity to knock off another unbeaten team for the second week in a row. The winner of Friday's clash will be in the driver's seat for the regular season conference title, although a season-finale showdown between Madison and Highland will also be interesting. That's now a must-win game for the Rams after last week's loss to Rigby, if Highland wants to earn a top-two finish and garner an automatic bid and home playoff game. Regardless of how this race sorts itself out, Rigby, Madison and Highland all have strong enough MaxPreps numbers right now to feel solid about their playoff chances.
North Idaho's Inland Empire League is a cozy three-team affair consisting of Coeur d'Alene, Lake City and Post Falls. Those three teams are a combined 13-5, yet all three are lagging behind other powers in the MaxPreps rankings. The Vikings travel to Lake City this Friday to get IEL play officially started, and the Timberwolves, who are currently out of the latest playoff projections, need a win to surge ahead.
CLASS 5A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (2 automatic bids)
District 4 (2 automatic bids)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Lakeland, Lewiston, Bishop Kelly, Vallivue, Minico, Pocatello, Skyline, Hillcrest, Blackfoot
WORK TO DO - Sandpoint, Nampa, Emmett, Bonneville, Twin Falls
ON THE BUBBLE - Skyview, Columbia, Ridgevue, Burley, Canyon Ridge, Preston, Shelley, Idaho Falls
This is a large bracket, where 16 of 25 teams statewide get to compete in the postseason. Right now, winless Skyview (0-6) is the first team out. Basically, if you don't make the playoffs in this classification, you've got no one to blame but yourself.
One distinction to this bracket is the fact that the top eight seeds are all awarded based upon pre-determined auto bids based upon district representation. It leads to some funky results, like the 5th (Lewiston) and 6th (Blackfoot) teams in the MaxPreps rankings actually being slotted at 9th and 10th in our current projections.
Because just about every team has a chance to qualify for the playoffs in this classification, we're a little more liberal with our "Lock" teams. Long story short, the nine teams listed here all have strong enough MaxPreps ratings that regardless of what happens, they'll qualify.
Even the teams that "have work to do" look solid. Bonneville is the only sub-.500 team of that group, so the Bees will need to finish strong to move one.
Forgive the brevity with this section, but until the Class 5A schools decide to shrink their bracket, there just isn't much intrigue to who will make the playoffs.
CLASS 4A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Fruitland, Weiser, Sugar-Salem
WORK TO DO - Moscow, Homedale, McCall-Donnelly, Kimberly, Buhl, Snake River, Marsh Valley, American Falls
ON THE BUBBLE - Bonners Ferry, Timberlake, Gooding, Filer, South Fremont, Teton
If we're being totally honest here, it feels like this bracket is fairly settled. I think 11 of the 12 spots are more or less decided at this point, but the key questions are:
Where does everyone wind up on the bracket line?
And who grabs that 12th and final spot?
This bracket only awards auto bids to the five conference champions. But, a conference champ doesn't automatically receive a top-five seed. All twelve teams will be seeded according to their MaxPreps ranking, and in our current projection, three of the top four seeds all come from the same conference (District 3's Snake River Valley Conference).
Right now, Teton officially would have the final at-large slot. The Timberwolves scheduled aggressively this year, but an injury-plagued campaign has led to a 1-5 start. Teton finishes their regular season with two league games against South Fremont and Sugar-Salem. They probably need to win both to feel really good about their footing. A 1-1 split would require some other teams being on the wrong side of the MaxPreps math.
Gooding, conversely, is 4-1, but a weak strength of schedule currently has the Senators on the outside looking in. Gooding has a winnable game against Wood River next week, but this Friday's contest with Filer kinda feels like an elimination game. If Gooding loses, it may not recover. And for Filer, a win over Gooding could catapult the Wildcats upward.
The other activity to keep an eye on takes place up north in the Intermountain League. Moscow has gotten off to a 5-2 start, but they are 0-0 in IML play. Timberlake and Bonners Ferry are young, fairly green teams this year, but no one's sure how tough of a schedule Moscow has navigated to this point. The Bears face Bonners Ferry this Friday, and we'll know a lot more after that.
CLASS 3A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4-5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Aberdeen, Declo, West Side, Firth, North Fremont, Ririe
WORK TO DO - Grangeville, Kellogg, Nampa Christian, Marsing, West Jefferson
ON THE BUBBLE - Priest River, Melba, New Plymouth, Malad
Take a look at the 3A MaxPreps rankings, and you'll immediately notice: the top seven spots belong to teams from East Idaho. Incredibly, you would think the upper end would start to hollow out the middle, but all seven teams (Aberdeen, Declo, West Side, Firth, North Fremont, Ririe and West Jefferson) all have such strong strength of schedule metrics, that they continue to lift each other up with each passing matchup. For example, West Jefferson (who could finish fourth in the Nuclear Conference) defeated Central Idaho League favorite Grangeville last week at a neutral site.
There's enough of a drop-off from Ririe to West J. that the Panthers still need to finish strong to officially secure a spot. The other teams with work to do are exclusively from District 1-2 (Grangeville and Kellogg) or District 3 (Nampa Christian and Marsing). The Trojans and Huskies play each other this Friday, with the winner assuming control of the Western Idaho Conference race. Grangeville and Kellogg, meanwhile, tango next Friday.
Even Melba and Priest River have an outside shot of forcing ties at the top of the their respective league races. The Mustangs fell to Nampa Christian last Friday, but a Marsing win over the Trojans this week, coupled with a Melba win over Marsing next week, creates a three-way tie and probably boosts Melba's MaxPreps ranking enough to squeeze in no matter how the tiebreaker shakes out. Same story for the Spartans, who have already lost to Grangeville, but face Kellogg in the season finale on October 25th. If Kellogg manages to knock off Grangeville on October 18th, and Priest River beats Kellogg the following Friday, we'll have another three-way tie.
Malad is 2-0 in the South East Idaho Conference, but hasn't played any of the league stalwarts yet. That changes this Friday, when the Dragons battle Aberdeen. The winner will be alone in first place, and we'll find out how legit this Malad team is in short order. New Plymouth, despite a 1-4 record, is hanging around the fringes of the at-large race. The Pilgrims have a neutral site game with Kellogg this weekend at Prairie High School in Cottonwood. The 'Grims have to win this game to stay in the race.
CLASS 2A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Kendrick, Logos, Valley, Hagerman, Butte County
WORK TO DO - Kamiah, Potlatch, Prairie, Raft River, Glenns Ferry, Grace
ON THE BUBBLE - Rimrock, Notus
This might be the most settled bracket of any classification. We feel confident saying that 11 of the 12 slots are pretty much spoken for, unless something really bizarre happens. The closest teams to the cut line are a pair of 0-6 squads, Murtaugh and Oakley (although the two do play each other this Friday, setting up the chance of an extended run possibly).
Really the only drama here is which teams will win their respective conferences. A first round bye comes along with that. And, in the case of the Western Idaho Conference in District 3, only one team will get in, and that's the league champion. Rimrock is currently 1-0, with seemingly the biggest hurdle, a win over Notus, already cleared. But this league can get hairy and weird, so nothing is settled yet.
CLASS 1A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - Carey, Dietrich
WORK TO DO - Lakeside, Council, Garden Valley, Tri-Valley, Shoshone, Rockland
ON THE BUBBLE - Wallace, Genesee, Deary, Cascade, Salmon River, Castleford, Challis, North Gem, Mackay
There's a whole heap of teams jumbled at the bottom of the MaxPreps rankings that will be fighting tooth and nail to earn an at-large bid to the postseason. Complicating matters is the fact that both front-runners for the Whitepine League title in District 2 (Deary and Genesee) both rank below the 12th best team according to MaxPreps rankings. Provided neither side stubs their toe in a tuneup next week, whoever wins their matchup in the regular season finale on October 25th will win the league title and could be a potential bid thief.
In District 1's North Star League, a similar scenario could unfold, as Wallace hosts Lakeside in their regular season finale, also on October 25th. District 1 plays a double round-robin schedule, so the Knights already have the inside edge thanks to their win over Wallace in Worley back in September. But a win by the Miners could force a tie at the top of the standings. That's bad news for the other at-large hopefuls, because Wallace is currently below the cut line.
There is a swarm of teams in District 5-6's Rocky Mountain Conference that are hanging on to a playoff spot by their fingernails. Challis already holds a win over North Gem, which helps. North Gem faces Mackay this Friday in a near-elimination match, while the Miners and Challis will tango next Friday in a similar situation.
|