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We've arrived: the final week of the Idaho high school football regular season.
Here at Baney's Bracketology, we're pretty confident about 90 percent of the playoff field at this point. Sure, some teams might swap positions on the seed line, or move up and down slightly, but that 90 percent? They can feel good about playing a playoff game somewhere in the next weeks.
And we'll certainly give the 90 percent their due. But we're really here to talk about that sweet, sweet 10 percent. Wild and unpredictable, there are a handful of teams and scenarios that won't be solved until the official IHSAA bracket is revealed either Sunday afternoon or Monday morning.
In this specific space, we'll handicap the various league championship scenarios for each conference statewide, and we'll also look at the playoff bubble, and which teams could play their way in our out of the postseason bracket. But for a large majority of Idaho teams, they'll be good enough to earn a playoff spot, but not quite good enough to win a league title. But because all six classifications award their berths based upon MaxPreps rankings to some degree, and some teams have compiled such impressive numbers in the rankings, the only question is where they'll end up on the bracket, not if they will get in.
With that said, we're categorizing teams into three categories:
LOCK - These are teams that are mathematically assured of a playoff spot. We will be somewhat judicious in handing these out this week, but will get more lenient with each passing week of action.
WORK TO DO - These are teams that should feel pretty good about their playoff chances, with room to improve their standing with strong performances
ON THE BUBBLE - These are the teams that are either just sneaking in, or just being left out, in our current bracket projections. One good performance can alter the cut line drastically, so all of the teams lumped in here should try and handle business themselves, rather than tempt the mathematical gods at MaxPreps.
Without further ado, let's get to it!
CLASS 6A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (2 automatic bids)
District 3 (6 automatic bids)
District 5-6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (2 bids)
LOCK - Coeur d'Alene, Rocky Mountain, Eagle, Rigby
WORK TO DO - Post Falls, Borah, Middleton, Timberline, Madison, Highland
ON THE BUBBLE - Lake City, Kuna, Mountain View, Owyhee, Meridian, Capital
Rigby officially wrapped up the High Country Conference title last week by defeating Madison, 35-21. With wins already over the Bobcats and Highland, Rigby cannot finish lower than first. Even if the Trojans stubbed their toe against Thunder Ridge in their season finale, the Trojans at worst would be tied with the Highland-Madison winner for first place, and the Trojans own the head-to-head tiebreaker over both squads.
Speaking of Highland and Madison, both teams have identical 1-1 HCC records, with losses to Rigby and wins over Thunder Ridge. The Rams travel to Rexburg this Friday in the season finale, and the winner will grab second place and the auto bid that comes along with it. The third-place finisher will most likely qualify for the playoffs as an at-large team, but because there are only two at-large bids available statewide, things could get dicey if enough high ranking teams from the Southern Idaho Conference suffer upset losses. Generally, though, I feel confident saying that all three teams (Rigby, Madison and Highland) will make it to state, so let's assume that leaves one at-large berth remaining.
Let's go to the Southern Idaho Conference.
Week 10 serves as the SIC Championship Game week, where the River and Foothills Division winners battle it out for ultimate SIC supremacy. Rocky Mountain (Foothills) and Eagle (River) will play for the SIC Championship, and regardless of what happens, both teams have earned first round byes into the quarterfinals.
The last-place finishers from each division will also play each other, in a game with no playoff implications whatsoever. Two years ago, Owyhee won the last-place game, and still had a strong enough MaxPreps rating to qualify for the playoffs. After that happened, the SIC added a rule stating that any team participating in the last place game is not eligible for postseason consideration.
The remaining four teams from each division playing in cross-divisional games. The cross-division games will look like this:
FOOTHILLS #5 at RIVER #2
RIVER #5 at FOOTHILLS #2
FOOTHILLS #4 at RIVER #3
RIVER #4 at FOOTHILLS #3
The winner of each cross-divisional game receives an auto bid to the playoffs, while the losers will compete with the third place teams from North and East Idaho for one of the two at-large bids available in this bracket.
Here are the official matchups:
(RIVER #1) Eagle at (FOOTHILLS #1) Rocky Mountain, SIC Championship
(FOOTHILLS #5) Capital at (RIVER #2) Borah
(RIVER #5) Mountain View at (FOOTHILLS #2) Middleton
(FOOTHILLS #4) Meridian at (RIVER #3) Kuna
(RIVER #4) Owyhee at (FOOTHILLS #3) Timberline
(RIVER #6) Boise at (FOOTHILLS #6) Centennial, Last Place Game
Only one of these games is a rematch from earlier in the season, as Borah defeated Capital 37-21 on September 12th. Every other matchup is a fresh battle.
We know that every team would like to win and earn an auto bid, but the questions we have to answer are: Which team can afford to lose? And which teams absolutely have to win?
Borah has the highest MaxPreps ranking, currently checking in 6th among all 6A teams. You'd have to figure a loss to Capital would cause their rating to tumble, and both Highland (7th) and Post Falls (8th) are both within striking distance of the Lions. What happens if Borah loses to Capital, Highland loses to Madison, and Post Falls loses to Lake City? All three would be fighting for two at-large berths. Highland, I think, because of the strong opponent they're facing (Madison, currently ranked 3rd) would take one of those spots, while Borah and Post Falls would be left to fight it out. It's obviously a situation both teams want to avoid. If Borah loses, but Post Falls wins, then the Lions could grab that last at-large spot more comfortably.
Despite finishing fourth in the River Division, Owyhee is actually the next-highest ranked team on MaxPreps, checking in at 9th overall. Timberline is right behind at 10th. They just happen to be playing each other on Thursday night at Dona Larsen Park. Suffice it to say, the loser of this game needs Borah to win and Post Falls to lose to grab the last at-large berth.
Everyone else (Kuna at 12th, Middleton at 13th, Meridian at 14th, and Mountain View at 15th) need to win. I just don't see a path forward for any of them otherwise.
North Idaho's Inland Empire League is a cozy three-team affair consisting of Coeur d'Alene, Lake City and Post Falls. The Vikings officially clinched the IEL crown by defeating Lake City and Post Falls, and earned a first round bye into the quarterfinals.
That leaves Post Falls and Lake City to duke it out Friday night at LC's Van Troxel Field. The winner gets an automatic berth to state. The loser (if it's Post Falls) has a slim chance to the get the final at-large bid. If Lake City loses, the Timberwolves (ranked 16th in MaxPreps) won't have a strong enough ranking to get in.
CLASS 5A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (2 automatic bids)
District 4 (2 automatic bids)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Lakeland, Lewiston, Sandpoint, Bishop Kelly, Vallivue, Emmett, Nampa, Minico, Twin Falls, Preston, Pocatello, Skyline, Hillcrest, Blackfoot, Bonneville, Shelley
WORK TO DO - None
ON THE BUBBLE - Idaho Falls
This is a large bracket, where 16 of 25 teams statewide get to compete in the postseason. Basically, if you don't make the playoffs in this classification, you've got no one to blame but yourself.
One distinction to this bracket is the fact that the top eight seeds are all awarded based upon pre-determined auto bids based upon district representation. It leads to some funky results, like the 5th team (Lewiston) in the MaxPreps rankings actually being slotted at 9th in our current projections.
Because just about every team has a chance to qualify for the playoffs in this classification, we're a little more liberal with our "Lock" teams. Long story short, the nine teams listed here all have strong enough MaxPreps ratings that regardless of what happens, they'll qualify. In fact, you'll notice that all sixteen teams have been listed as "Locks" this week.
But what about Idaho Falls? You could squint at this bracket and see a scenario where Idaho Falls beats Hillcrest (currently ranked 2nd in MaxPreps) and that propels the Tigers past someone on the cut line. But because they're so far behind the last team in, Nampa, in MaxPreps rating (-14.2 to -2.7), I'm not even sure a win over Hillcrest would be enough.
What's interesting in this bracket, though, are the teams that still need to lock up top eight seeds. Five of the eight have already been spoken for, as Skyline and Hillcrest finished first and second in District 6, Preston claimed the District 5 crown, and Minico and Twin Falls wrapped up the top two spots in District 4. The Bruins host the Spartans for the conference title Friday night, but regardless of what happens, both will be top eight seeds.
That leaves one bid from District 1-2 up north and two bids from District 3. District 1-2 is simple: Lakeland travels to Lewiston on Friday night. The winner wins the Inland Empire League and grabs the lone top eight seed. The loser will still make the playoffs, but will have to hit the road.
District 3 can get a little crazy, though.
The top four teams all play each other on Friday, as Bishop Kelly faces Emmett and Vallivue takes on Nampa. Here are the current Southern Idaho Conference standings:
1. Bishop Kelly (5-0)
2. Vallivue (4-1)
3. Emmett (4-1)
4. Nampa (3-2)
Vallivue defeated Emmett on a last-second touchdown earlier this year, and thus holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Huskies. There are four possible scenarios that could play out Friday. Let's explore them!
SCENARIO 1:
Bishop Kelly defeats Emmett
Vallivue defeats Nampa
The standings would look like this:
1. Bishop Kelly (6-0)
2. Vallivue (5-1)
3. Emmett (4-2)
4. Nampa (3-3)
This is the most straightforward. BK and Vallivue take the top two spots outright, while Emmett takes third over Nampa.
SCENARIO 2:
Bishop Kelly defeats Emmett
Nampa defeats Vallivue
The standings would look like this:
1. Bishop Kelly (6-0)
T-2. Vallivue (4-2)
T-2. Emmett (4-2)
T-2. Nampa (4-2)
BK would earn first place outright, but a three-way tie for second would develop. Vallivue beat Emmett, Emmett beat Nampa and Nampa beat Vallivue. So the tiebreaker is settled using......
The AZZIE Points System!
As a refresher, this is a point differential formula that is capped at 14 points. So no loss can garner more than -14 and no win can garner more than +14. Only the games involving the teams that are tied are considered. Here's what the AZZIE resumes look like:
Emmett - Win over Nampa 53-28 (+14), Loss to Vallivue 18-14 (-4) for a grand total of +10
Nampa - Loss to Emmett 53-28 (-14)
Vallivue - W over Emmett 18-14 (+14)
In this scenario, even if Nampa beat Vallivue by the maximum of 14 points, that would only put the Bulldogs at 0. Vallivue, meanwhile, would also move to 0 in this scenario. So no matter what happens here, Emmett would gain second place thanks to their +10 mark.
SCENARIO 3:
Emmett defeats Bishop Kelly
Vallivue defeats Nampa
The standings would look like this:
T-1. Bishop Kelly (5-1)
T-1. Vallivue (5-1)
T-1. Emmett (5-1)
4. Nampa (3-3)
Again, we have a three-way tie between three teams that would have all beaten each other. Back to the AZZIE!
Bishop Kelly - Win over Vallivue 21-14 (+7)
Emmett - Loss to Vallivue 18-14 (-4)
Vallivue - W over Emmett 18-14 (+4), Loss to Bishop Kelly 21-14 (-7) for a grand total of -3
In this scenario, Emmett would need to beat BK by six points or more to claim the tie-breaker. That would leave Emmett at +2 and BK at +1.
If BK lost by five points or less, the Knights would still have the better AZZIE points total.
For Vallivue to finish in second, they would need Emmett to win by 11 points or more.
SCENARIO 4:
Emmett defeats Bishop Kelly
Nampa defeats Vallivue
The standings would look like this:
1. Emmett (5-1)
2. Bishop Kelly (5-1)
3. Nampa (4-2)
4. Vallivue (4-2)
This is a simple one, as well. Emmett would earn the head-to-head tie-breaker over BK, while Nampa would do the same with Vallivue for third and fourth.
CLASS 4A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Moscow, Fruitland, Weiser, Homedale, McCall-Donnelly, Kimberly, Buhl, Snake River, Marsh Valley, Sugar-Salem
WORK TO DO - None
ON THE BUBBLE - Timberlake, Filer, American Falls, Teton
This bracket only awards auto bids to the five conference champions. But, a conference champ doesn't automatically receive a top-five seed. All twelve teams will be seeded according to their MaxPreps ranking, and in our current projection, two of the top four seeds are from the same conference (District 3's Snake River Valley Conference).
Right now, Teton officially would have the final at-large slot. The Timberwolves scheduled aggressively this year, but an injury-plagued campaign has led to a slow start. Teton won their first league game against South Fremont last Friday, and now faces juggernaut Sugar-Salem. A win obviously puts Teton in as the conference champion, but a loss may not doom the Timberwolves. Sugar-Salem is the number one team in the MaxPreps rankings, so Teton's strength of schedule may be enough to push it across the finish line. The one caveat is a team below Teton (maybe Timberlake, especially Filer) leapfrogging the T-Wolves with a win combined with a Teton loss.
American Falls is in the same boat. Once thought to be relatively safe, the Beavers are now just 0.5 points ahead of Teton in the MaxPreps rankings. The 4-4 Beavers finish their season against Marsh Valley. A win puts American Falls in; a loss leads to a roll of the MaxPreps dice.
Timberlake is currently the first team out. The Tigers are a full five points behind Teton, and finish with Bonners Ferry (ranked 17th in MaxPreps). A win, even a blowout win, may not be enough to move the needle for Timberlake to catch Teton.
But Filer, lurking two spots behind Teton, has a real chance to make a move in the final week. That's because the Wildcats play Buhl (currently ranked 9th). If Filer could knock off Buhl in convincing fashion, maybe the math would move Filer high enough to supplant either Teton or American Falls coming off of a loss.
CLASS 3A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4-5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Grangeville, Nampa Christian, Marsing, Aberdeen, Declo, West Side, Firth, North Fremont, West Jefferson, Ririe
WORK TO DO - Malad
ON THE BUBBLE - Kellogg, Priest River, Melba
Take a look at the 3A MaxPreps rankings, and you'll immediately notice: the top seven spots belong to teams from East Idaho. Incredibly, you would think the upper end would start to hollow out the middle, but all seven teams (Aberdeen, Declo, West Side, Firth, North Fremont, Ririe and West Jefferson) all have such strong strength of schedule metrics, that they continue to lift each other up with each passing matchup. For example, West Jefferson (who could finish fourth in the Nuclear Conference) defeated Central Idaho League champion Grangeville at a neutral site earlier this season.
The four district champions earn a first-round bye, and three of those slots (Grangeville, Nampa Christian and Firth) have been decided. The only race still left to sort out? The uber-competitive South East Idaho Conference (District 4-5).
Currently, Declo, West Side and Aberdeen are all 3-1 in the league standings. Each finishes with an opponent that ranks in the bottom half of the standings. Assuming all three teams win, they'll all finish with 4-1 conference records. Declo defeated West Side (6-0), West Side defeated Aberdeen (14-12) and Aberdeen defeated Declo (8-0).
The margins are razor-thin. So how does this three-way tie get decided? By MaxPreps ranking. That's right, whichever team has the highest MaxPreps ranking earns the league crown and first round bye.
The rest of the intrigue lies on the cut line of this bracket. The way I see it, there are three teams fighting for the last playoff spot. Right now, that belongs to Priest River, but Melba and Kellogg each have a shot to take that last bid away.
The Wildcats will face the Spartans on Friday. If Priest River wins, the Spartans should retain that final playoff berth. If Kellogg wins, will their MaxPreps ranking move enough to leapfrog not only Priest River, but Melba as well (provided Melba defeats New Plymouth; if Melba loses, they're toast, pardon the pun.)? Only time will tell.
CLASS 2A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Kendrick, Logos, Prairie, Kamiah, Rimrock, Valley, Hagerman, Raft River, Butte County, Grace
WORK TO DO - None
ON THE BUBBLE - Potlatch, Glenns Ferry, Murtaugh
The four conference champions receive first round byes, and Logos (District 2), Rimrock (District 3) and Valley (District 4) all sewed up league crowns last week. The only league still to be sorted out? District 5-6, where Butte County and Grace are the only two members. The Pirates host the Grizzlies on Friday. Both teams will make the playoffs, but the winner gets a bye week and a home playoff game.
Meanwhile, on the cut line, the final two playoff spots pretty much boil down to three teams: Potlatch, Glenns Ferry and Murtaugh.
Right now, the pecking order is Glenns Ferry (10th in MaxPreps), Murtaugh (11th) and Potlatch (12th). And you might be thinking: what's the hold-up here? Don't 12 teams get in to the playoffs? Yes, but Rimrock (the District 3 champ) is currently ranked 15th in MaxPreps, so really, you need to finish 11th or higher to earn a postseason berth.
That leaves the 5-3 Potlatch Loggers on the outside looking in right now, with one final game at District 2 champion Logos awaiting them in the regular season finale. Doesn't look too good for the Loggers, does it?
But wait! The other factor to consider is that Glenns Ferry and Murtaugh play each other in a game that could serve as a de-facto knockout contest.
I'm really guessing here, since no one really knows how volatile the MaxPreps rankings could move, but here's how I see it:
Assuming Potlatch loses (not a sign of disrespect; the Knights just ended Kendrick's 30-game winning streak last week), it all hinges on that Glenns Ferry-Murtaugh game.
If Murtaugh loses, I think Potlatch moves past the one-win Red Devils for the final playoff spot.
If Glenns Ferry loses by a significant margin, I also think the Pilots could slip behind Potlatch for the final spot.
But what if Glenns Ferry loses in a tight battle, by six points or less? That might be enough to keep the rankings where they are, which would leave Potlatch on the outside looking in.
If you're a Loggers fan, you want Glenns Ferry to win, and win big.
CLASS 1A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - Council, Tri-Valley, Garden valley, Carey, Dietrich, Shoshone, Rockland
WORK TO DO - North Gem, Challis
ON THE BUBBLE - Lakeside, Wallace, Genesee, Deary, Timberline, Cascade
The only thing guaranteed in this bracket is that all five conference champions will receive automatic bids (and, boy, does that loom large, but don't worry, we'll get to it.)
Additionally, the four highest ranked conference champions receive a first round bye. The fifth-ranked conference champ will host the final at-large qualifier in a first round playoff game.
It should be noted: the quarterfinals will be re-seeded 1 through 8 based upon MaxPreps ranking. Just because a team won their district doesn't necessarily guarantee that they will be a top-four seed.
Council won the District 3 championship last week over Tri-Valley, and Carey did the same in District 4 over Shoshone. The other three leagues? Still up for grabs.
In District 1, Lakeside and Wallace are each 3-1 in league play. The Miners host the Knights on Friday night, and the winner will claim the North Star League outright.
Wallace needs to win this game to earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Miners are our first team out (while Cascade is the last team in.) Could Wallace get in with a loss to Lakeside, coupled with a Cascade loss to Garden Valley? Possibly, but that's a fire I wouldn't want to play with, personally.
And now, after stumbling against Coeur du Christ, Lakeside kinda has to win this game too in order to feel secure. The Knights have a 0.2 point lead over Cascade in the MaxPreps rankings right now, so again, a Lakeside loss coupled with a Cascade loss could put the Knights in, but man, that's a risky bet.
Over in District 5-6, Rockland, Challis and North Gem should all qualify for the postseason. But who wins the league, and gets a first round bye, still has to be decided.
Challis' regular season is over. The Vikings finished 3-1 in league play, with a win over North Gem and a loss to Rockland.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs and Cowboys play this Friday. If Rockland wins, the Bulldogs win the league title with a 4-0 record. Challis takes second at 3-1 and North Gem finishes third at 2-2.
But what if North Gem springs the upset? Then all three teams would be tied with 3-1 league marks. All three would have beaten each other, so the tiebreaker would be decided by point differential.
Unlike the AZZIE Points System that we talked about in the 5A breakdown, this is an uncapped point differential spread. So let's look at everyone's marks:
Challis - Win over North Gem 40-38 (+2), Loss to Rockland 36-0 (-36) for a total of -34.
Rockland - Win over Challis 36-0 (+36)
North Gem - Loss to Challis 40-38 (-2)
In this scenario, not only would North Gem need to win over Rockland, but they'd need to win by 20 points or more to tilt the scales in their favor.
Finally, let's go to District 2's Whitepine League. To be clear, this will be a one-bid league, as all four members are currently ranked below the top twelve in the MaxPreps rankings.
Here are the current standings:
1. Deary (2-0)
2. Timberline (1-1)
3. Genesee (1-1)
4. Lewis County (0-2)
Deary takes on Genesee this week, while Timberline travels to Nezperce for a Saturday afternoon showdown with Lewis County. There are three possible scenarios that could play out here.
SCENARIO 1:
Deary defeats Genesee
Deary would win the league at 3-0. This is the most ideal situation if you're Deary, or someone who doesn't want to wait to fill out the bracket.
SCENARIO 2:
Genesee defeats Deary
Lewis County defeats Timberline
In this scenario, Genesee and Deary each finish 2-1, while Timberline finishes 1-2. Genesee wins the league thanks to the head-to-head win over Deary.
SCENARIO 3:
Genesee defeats Deary
Timberline defeats Lewis County
This is the most exciting scenario if you're a fan, and it's the absolute worst for the teams and coaches. In this scenario, Genesee, Deary and Timberline would all finish 2-1, with wins over each other.
How does this tiebreaker get settled? The good, old-fashioned Kansas City Playoff!
For those not familiar: The Kansas City Playoff, or Kansas City Tiebreaker, is a mini-scrimmage between two or more teams, similar to an early season jamboree.
The rules vary slightly. Some tiebreakers dictate each team start at the 40-yard line. Some start at the 35- or 25-yard line. Some eventually move to the 10-yard line. But the concept is the same.
Team A plays Team B. There is no clock, just like in the college football overtime system. Team A starts on offense, while Team B starts on defense. If Team A scores, Team B then has to match that score for the round to continue. If Team B doesn't score on their possession, then Team A wins the round. Similarly, if Team Be stops Team A on their possession, and then scores when they have the ball, then Team B wins the round.
The winner of the first round plays Team C. The winner of that matchup then plays the loser of the first matchup. The round robin format is continued until someone is eliminated. These things can last twenty minutes or two hours, and everywhere in between. Kansas City Tiebreakers are fairly uncommon, which is what makes them so unique and interesting.
A date, time and location for a potential Kansas City Playoff hasn't been determined yet. But you can bet your bottom dollar it will be on Monday somewhere in District 2.
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