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Written by: Matt Harris
Follow Matt Harris on Twitter: @IdahoSportsMatt
Class 1A Division II
Castleford vs. Dietrich at Castleford HS: Friday at 2:30 p.m.
This is a rematch of a regular season matchup on Sept. 20 at Castleford. While it wasn’t a mercy rule game, it was pretty close. Dietrich took it to the Wolves, who have only won three games this season. Castleford brought the heat against Calvary Chapel last week, but I think they fall in this one. However, I do think that the game will be closer than the earlier contest.
Carey vs. Lighthouse Christian at Carey HS: Friday at 7:00 p.m.
Like the Castleford/Dietrich matchup, this is another regular season rematch. In the first tilt, however, the Lions dominated Carey to the tune of 50-0. The Lions have only had two games that weren’t ended early via the mercy rule: Week 1 against 1AD1 Murtaugh and Week 8 against Dietrich, the second ranked team in the conference. Carey has a ton of football history, but unfortunately for the Panthers, I don’t think they can keep up with Lighthouse Christian.
Class 1A Division I
Murtaugh vs. Hagerman at Holt Arena: Thursday at 7:30 p.m.
Look back to a couple of weeks before the season. Both Murtaugh and Hansen were struggling with numbers and wondering if they could even field a football team this year. Then the powers that be decided to co-op and voila! They find themselves in the state quarterfinals. Unfortunately for them, they get the privilege of playing the buzzsaw that is the Hagerman Pirates. In the first regular season matchup, Hagerman won 63-14. The Pirates have scored 596 points this year: a 59.6 points per game average. The orange and black have demolished each opponent they’ve played by mercy rule margins. Hagerman goes away winning big.
Challis vs. Raft River at Challis HS: Friday at 6:00 p.m.
These two squads played just two weeks ago, with the Vikings emerging on top with a 40-30 victory in a game played at Challis. The Trojans let Challis QB Brandon Hamilton run wild in that one, literally. He had 228 rushing yards with 4 TD’s and threw for 132 yards and 2 TD’s with no interceptions. Billy Sensebaugh also had four interceptions for the Vikings. A great performance by both of those players indeed. But they will have to duplicate those kind of numbers against Raft River on Friday night to keep their season alive… and I’m willing to bet that the Trojans have reviewed that game tape a time or two, figured out what went wrong, and are ready to rock on game night. I’ll take Raft River in a tight game.
Class 2A
Grangeville vs. Declo at Grangeville HS: Friday at 6:00 p.m.
Another big rematch happening at the same site and in the same playoff round as last season. In 2012, Declo edged Grangeville 18-17 en route to the state championship. The Hornets shook off the Bulldogs in that game despite making the 400 mile trip north. This year, it could be a repeat of last season’s contest: a low scoring, grind-it-out kind of game. The difference: I think that Grangeville’s schedule, which included games against Moscow, Timberlake, and Gooding, have prepared them for this stage. The Bulldogs take this one in a highly-emotional, tightly-contested game.
Wendell vs. North Fremont at Wendell HS: Friday at 7:00 p.m.
It’s the Canyon Conference champions squaring off against the upstart Huskies of the Nuke. Both teams have had good seasons to this point: North Fremont with an improved campaign in Ben Lenz’s second year as head coach and Wendell knocking off perennial conference champion Declo to snag that honor this year. Both of these teams have a common opponent: the Soda Springs Cardinals. North Fremont fell 36-32 at Soda Springs earlier in the year, while Wendell defeated the Cardinals 28-7 last week. The question in my mind is which Huskies defense shows up on Friday night? Wendell’s trio of Alex Swainston, Jacob Rocha, and Logan Bowers is tough to stop. If the Huskies can stop two of the three, they will be in good position to secure the victory. However, I think Wendell protects the home field and walks out the winner in a one-touchdown game.
West Side vs. Orofino at Holt Arena: Thursday at 5:00 p.m.
540 miles is a LONG ways to go for one football game. In fact, my hometown in Canada is closer to Holt Arena than Orofino is. How much does that trip take out of the 33 Maniacs players on board the bus? Both teams score a LOT of points. West Side has opened up their game more this year than in seasons gone by. The Pirates defense is strong too, including the secondary which limited Salmon’s pass-happy attack to less than 150 yards passing and only 14 points. How does Orofino fare against the West Side secondary? Not as well as they would have hoped. I think West Side advances.
Cole Valley vs. Firth at Meridian HS: Friday at 5:00 p.m.
Cole Valley is the only undefeated team left in the 2A classification. But the general feeling I am getting is that they are the underdog in this game. What helps to attribute to that outside of the people I talk to? The overall strength of the 2A WIC (Melba, New Plymouth, and Nampa Christian all lost their opening round games last week) and the state media polls (sitting in 3rd place behind Firth and West Side). Last week’s sluggish win over St. Maries doesn’t help their case either. The Chargers better be ready for the Connor Montgomery show. This kid is a beast and better be in the running for the 2A Idaho Player of the Year award. Firth head coach Keith Drake told me at the beginning of the season to watch out for Montgomery this year (Click here to listen to interview). Boy was he right. The run game along with the Cougars defense overpowers Cole Valley and Firth returns home with the ‘W’.
Class 3A
Snake River vs. Shelley at Snake River HS: Saturday at 1:00 p.m.
Last week, Snake River sealed a 15-13 victory right before the buzzer sounded after Teton’s two-point conversion pass was tipped away at the last moment by the Panthers’ Kade Harral. In the combination of their two games this year, the Redskins had held the Snake River offense scoreless for just over 89 minutes (or 7.5 quarters). Against Shelley, Teton trailed 42-7 entering the fourth quarter. The correlation? Shelley’s offense is dang good… and Snake River’s offense struggles. The Snake River defense may slow down the Russets some, but the Panthers offense won’t be able to put enough points on the board. Shelley advances to the semi-finals.
Gooding vs. Sugar-Salem at Gooding HS: Friday at 7:00 p.m.
This is one intriguing matchup: contrasting styles, both teams with something to prove, and a possible battle to the end. For Sugar-Salem, it’s the “three yards and a cloud of dust” mentality with Jordan Godby being the main benefactor. He averages over 200 yards per game, including going over the 2,000 yard mark already this season. But with the Diggers offense, being a one-dimensional threat is the norm, not the exception. Only Snake River and Shelley have stopped it this year, but Gooding could be in the mix. Add in the Senators’ combo pass and run game and the Diggers could find themselves in a tight game if their defensive secondary doesn’t show up. I believe this will be the best 3A game of the week with Gooding edging Sugar-Salem.
Class 4A
Twin Falls vs. Century at Twin Falls HS: Friday at 7:00 p.m.
The Bruins are led by RB Jacob Johnson and his stellar rushing attack. He always seems to find a way to push forward for more yardage when it doesn’t seem possible. However, Twin Falls’ defense has been the key cog for the Bruins. Solid defense leads to more opportunities for their methodical drives downfield, chewing up clock and yardage. Their defense will need its best outing of the season against a ridiculously hot Century team coming to town. Since their 21-19 defeat at the hands of Rigby, the Diamondbacks have given up 29 points in their last FIVE GAMES. Yeah, that’s a 5.8 points per game average on defense. Meanwhile, the offense has racked up 36.6 points per game during that five game stretch after a slow start. Twin Falls passing game has improved as the season has progressed, but I don’t think it compares to Century’s. The Diamondbacks take this one and set up a home game at Holt Arena next week.
Rigby vs. Jerome at Holt Arena: Friday at 8:30 p.m.
It’s the late game from the Dome on Friday night. Rigby has dropped two of their last three games by a combined 45 points. Last week’s loss to Blackfoot surprised me quite a bit. Before that game was even played, Rigby had already secured a playoff spot. The Trojans starters played for about three and a half quarters and mustered only seven points against a 2-6 Broncos team. Blackfoot put all of their points on the board with a freshman quarterback who had one and half games worth of varsity experience directing the offense (not to take away from Blackfoot’s Paycen Hayes. He is going to be a stud for the Broncos for years to come). Does this concern me? It does somewhat. Maybe they were looking ahead to the next week. However, if that game was supposed to be fine-tuning in preparation for the playoffs, it was a major failure. Blackfoot controlled the game and showed how to stop Rigby. But there is a reason the Trojans are 7-2 this year, and it’s not because of luck. These guys are good. They are extremely well coached. They’ve shown that they can win close games. The defense will need to be stellar against Jerome’s Zach Thibault, a 2012 All-Idaho Second Team QB. If the Tigers offense comes flying out of the gates, it’ll be a battle to the finish. But if Rigby stifles their drives early on, the Trojans will move on. These two teams do have a common opponent in the Century Diamondbacks. Rigby won 21-19 at home, Jerome lost 31-7 at home. I’ll take Rigby in a nail-biter.
Class 5A
Highland vs. Mountain View at Holt Arena: Friday at 6:00 p.m.
The Highland Rams are the only undefeated team left in Class 5A. The Rams biggest win came against Coeur d’Alene on Sept. 21, a 24-21 victory at Holt Arena. They have allowed only 32 points in the past five games. They hammered Idaho Falls 51-6 in the 5A High Country Conference championship game. The Rams are a balanced team that can smother opponents with the power run game or out-gun them with the passing game. Mountain View better be up for the challenge on Friday night. The Mavericks have allowed 40 points in their last four games. Trying to bottle up the Rams Thad Hansen will be a challenge, but the Mavs get to practice against RB Josh Buss every day. To say that Buss is the key cog of the offense is an understatement. He’s already broken the school record for most rushing yards in a game with 324. He averages well over 200 yards per game on the ground and has been unreal so far this year. Can Highland stop “The Buss”? I don’t think so. But they can slow him down and force Mountain View to rely on someone else for offense. Kai Turner is going to be a key player in this game. His play will be the difference between a blowout and a close one with a chance to win. In the end, I think that the dome advantage plus the Rams having more weapons on offense makes the difference. Highland wins it and sets up a showdown next week at Holt.
Capital vs. Idaho Falls at Dona Larsen Park: Friday at 7:00 p.m.
The Idaho Falls Tigers have been the surprise of the 5A classification this season. After a few years in the dumps, the Tigers revamped their offense and put on an aerial display during the regular season. Quarterback A.J. Martin regularly racks up 300+ passing yards per game, with a lot of that yardage going to WR Clayton Powell. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone as fast as Powell on the football field: he has the ability to turn on the jets and blow past the defense if given the chance. Martin also has the ability to run if necessary. Capital is no slouch however. The Eagles have their own stellar QB in Connor Poulson and an offense that can move the ball and put a lot of points on the board. A looming question is what happened against Centennial that resulted in only a three point win? And what about last week’s loss to Eagle, the 4th place team from the SIC? As for Idaho Falls, can the orange and black keep up the pace against the Capital defense? Will the O-Line keep Martin upright? I’m not sold on the Tigers run game either. I think this ends up being a shootout with Capital emerging victorious.
There you have it: my observations on the State Quarterfinals. These are just guesses at who I think will win. I don’t have a rooting interest in any team, so don’t go claiming that I am a homer. Good luck to all the teams this week!
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