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Matt joined the IdahoSports.com team in the fall of 2011. He is the Sports Information Director and also broadcasts many sporting events throughout Idaho. Matt grew up in Alberta, Canada and moved to the Gem State in 2004. He holds a Bachelors Degree in Broadcast Communications and works for Riverbend Communications. Matt married his wife (and much better half), Hannah, in 2010 and they have three children: Eli, Naomi, and Elizabeth. He and his family reside in Idaho Falls. Follow Matt on Twitter: @IdahoSportsMatt

 

4A Football Playoff & Tiebreaker Scenarios
Published: 10/17/2016 11:37:18 PM

A look at the playoff and tiebreaker scenarios for all 4A conferences in Idaho.



To see the 4A State Football Tournament bracket, click HERE.

Here is a look at all of the potential playoff and tiebreaker scenarios as we head into the final week of the regular season.

4A District 1-2 Inland Empire League

Total berths to the state tournament: two.

Clinched Playoff Berth
Lakeland Hawks - conference champion, seed 1-2A

Still In Contention
Sandpoint Bulldogs
Moscow Bears

Lakeland has clinched the conference title already, having beaten both Sandpoint and Moscow. With a three team conference, it makes the scenarios rather simple.

Moscow plays Sandpoint at Lake City HS this Friday. Here are the scenarios:

If Moscow beats Sandpoint
Moscow finishes second and takes seed 1-2B, with Sandpoint missing the playoffs.

If Sandpoint beats Moscow
Sandpoint finishes second and takes seed 1-2B, with Moscow missing the playoffs.


4A District 3 Southern Idaho Conference

Total berths to the state tournament: four.

Clinched Playoff Berth
Bishop Kelly Knights - conference champion, seed 3A
Emmett Huskies

Still In Contention
Skyview Hawks
Vallivue Falcons
Middleton Vikings

Eliminated
Ridgevue Warhawks
Caldwell Cougars
Mountain Home Tigers

Bishop Kelly is the only team in the conference to not have to worry about this week's game affecting their seeding in the tournament. The quartet of Skyview, Emmett, Vallivue and Middleton still have quite a bit to work out. Of those four, only Emmett is for sure into the tournament. 

This week, Bishop Kelly plays at Caldwell, Skyview hosts Ridgevue, Mountain Home is at Emmett, and Vallivue is home against Middleton. Here are the scenarios:

If Emmett beats Mountain Home, Skyview beats Ridgevue, and Vallivue beats Middleton
Three-way tie for second place in the conference between Emmett, Skyview, and Vallivue, with Middleton missing the playoffs.

The three-way tie is broken using the Azzie point differential system. It takes the point-differential of a team's wins and losses against the teams it is in a tie with and combines them for a tiebreaking differential. There is also a cap of 14 points, meaning that a 50-point win is the same as a 14-point win. 

In this situation, the point differentials are taken from the games in which Emmett, Skyview, and Vallivue competed against each other.

Emmett
Beat Vallivue 37-26. Differential: +11
Lost to Skyview 39-27. Differential: -12
Total point differential: -1

Skyview
Lost to Vallivue 27-10. Differential: -14
Beat Emmett 39-27. Differential: +12
Total point differential: -2

Vallivue
Lost to Emmett 37-26. Differential: -11
Beat Skyview 27-10. Differential: +14
Total point differential: +3

In this scenario, Vallivue would finish second and take seed 3B, Emmett would finish third and take seed 3C, and Skyview would finish fourth and take seed 3D.

If Emmett beats Mountain Home, Skyview beats Ridgevue, and Vallivue loses to Middleton
Skyview finishes second and takes seed 3B, Emmett finishes third and takes seed 3C, and Middleton finishes fourth and takes seed 3D, with Vallivue missing the playoffs.

If Emmett beats Mountain Home, Skyview loses to Ridgevue, and Vallivue beats Middleton
Emmett finishes second and takes seed 3B, Vallivue finishes third and takes seed 3C, Skyview finishes fourth and takes seed 3D, and Middleton misses the playoffs.

If Emmett beats Mountain Home, Skyview loses to Ridgevue, and Vallivue loses to Middleton
Emmett finishes second and takes seed 3B and there is a 3-way tie for third place between Vallivue, Skyview, and Middleton.

In this situation, the Azzie point differential system is used again. The point differentials from the games in which Vallivue, Skyview, and Middleton played against each other are taken.

Vallivue
Beat Skyview 27-10. Differential: +14
Total point differential: +14*
(*Vallivue has yet to play against Middleton)

Middleton
Lost to Skyview 41-7. Differential: -14
Total point differential: -14*
(*Middleton has yet to play against Vallivue)

Skyview
Lost to Vallivue 27-10. Differential: -14
Beat Middleton 41-7. Differential: +14

What does this all mean? It means it's going to come down to if Middleton can beat Vallivue and by how much. Here's what I mean:

If Middleton wins their game against Vallivue by 1-13 points, their total final point differential will sit between -13 and -1, while Vallivue's point differential will sit between +13 and +1. If Middleton wins by 13 points or less, Vallivue will finish second place in the conference and take seed 3B, Skyview will finish third place and take seed 3C, and Middleton will miss the playoffs (since their point differential is the lowest of the three teams in question).

If Middleton wins their game against Vallivue by 14 or more points, their total final point differential will sit at 0, while Vallivue's total final point differential will also sit at 0. Remember, it can't go any higher because a Middleton win of more than 14 points is capped at 14. Skyview's 0 point differential would leave them tied again. How do they break this tie? 

The Southern Idaho Conference policy handbook states "if the games between the tied teams cannot break the tie, the other league games will be added into the formula from top down." This means that results against Bishop Kelly (as the top team in the conference) will be included in the points formula. 

These are the results of the three teams in question against Bishop Kelly:

Vallivue lost to Bishop Kelly 29-15
Point Differential: -14

Middleton lost to Bishop Kelly 20-11
Point Differential: -9

Skyview lost to Bishop Kelly 50-21
Point Differential: -14

This means that Middleton would take third place in the conference and seed 3C to the state tournament. But that leaves both Skyview and Vallivue still in jeopardy. They then move to the second ranked team, which would be Emmett. Skyview beat Emmett 39-27 and Vallivue lost to Emmett 37-26, meaning that Skyview would then finish in fourth place and take seed 3D to the state tournament and Vallivue would miss the playoffs.

If Emmett loses to Mountain Home, Vallivue beats Middleton, and Skyview beats Ridgevue
Vallivue would finish second and take seed 3B, Skyview would finish third and take seed 3C, and Emmett would finish fourth and take seed 3D, with Middleton missing the playoffs.

If Emmett loses to Mountain Home, Vallivue loses to Middleton, and Skyview beats Ridgevue
Skyview would finish second and take seed 3B, Emmett would finish third and take seed 3C, and Middleton would finish fourth and take seed 3D, with Vallivue missing the playoffs.

If Emmett loses to Mountain Home, Vallivue beats Middleton, and Skyview loses to Ridgevue
Vallivue would finish second and take seed 3B, Skyview would finish third and take seed 3C, and Emmett would finish fourth and take seed 3D, with Middleton missing the playoffs.

If Emmett loses to Mountain Home, Vallivue loses to Middleton, and Skyview loses to Ridgevue.
All four teams tie for second place at 4-3 overall in conference play. Since there is a four-way tie, it goes to the point differential tiebreaker.

Emmett
Beat Vallivue 37-26. Differential: +11
Lost to Skyview 39-27. Differential: -12
Beat Middleton 20-13. Differential: _7
Total point differential: +6

Skyview
Lost to Vallivue 27-10. Differential: -14
Beat Emmett 39-27. Differential: +12
Beat Middleton 41-7. Differential: +14
Total point differential: +12

Vallivue
Lost to Emmett 37-26. Differential: -11
Beat Skyview 27-10. Differential: +14
Total point differential: +3*
(*Vallivue has yet to play Middleton)

Middleton
Lost to Emmett 20-13. Differential: -7
Lost to Skyview 41-7. Differential: -14
Total point differential: -21*
(*Middleton has yet to play Vallivue)

Based on the point differentials, the most that Middleton can move is +14 points total, meaning the highest point differential they can reach is -7. That means that in this scenario, Skyview takes second place and seed 3B and Emmett takes third place and seed 3C. The last seed remaining (seed 3D) is up for grabs between Middleton and Vallivue based on the following:

If Middleton wins by 1-11 points over Vallivue, that moves their total final point differential between -20 and -10 with Vallivue's total final point differential moving between +2 and -8. Vallivue would finish fourth and take seed 3D with Middleton missing the playoffs.

If Middleton wins by 12 points over Vallivue, that moves their total final point differential to -9 and Vallivue's would also move to -9. Since Middleton would own the head-to-head tiebreaker, Middleton would finish fourth and take seed 3D with Vallivue missing the playoffs.

If Middleton wins by 13 or more points over Vallivue, that moves their total final point differential to -8 or -7 (maxed out at -7 because of the 14-point cap) and Vallivue's would move to -10 or -11, meaning that Middleton would finish fourth and take seed 3D with Vallivue missing the playoffs.


4A District 4 Great Basin West Conference

Total berths to the state tournament: three.

Clinched Playoff Berth
Wood River Wolverines

Still In Contention
Minico Spartans
Twin Falls Bruins
Jerome Tigers

Eliminated
Canyon Ridge Riverhawks
Burley Bobcats

Wood River is the only team that is safely into the state tournament, although we don't know their seeding position yet. The trio of Minico, Twin Falls, and Jerome will be battling it out for the final two seeds to state.

This week, Minico is at Wood River and Twin Falls is at Jerome. Here are the scenarios:

If Wood River beats Minico and Twin Falls beats Jerome
Wood River finishes first and takes seed 4A, Twin Falls finishes second at takes seed 4B, Minico finishes third and takes seed 4C, and Jerome misses the playoffs.

If Wood River beats Minico and Jerome beats Twin Falls
Wood River finishes first and takes seed 4A, and then a 3-way tie for second place between Minico, Twin Falls, and Jerome.

The tiebreaker in this scenario is a Kansas City Playoff between Minico, Twin Falls, and Jerome on Monday, October 24th at Burley HS. Whoever finishes first in that playoff will earn seed 4B, whoever finishes second in the playoff will earn seed 4C, and whoever finishes last in the playoff will miss the state tournament.

If Minico beats Wood River and Twin Falls beats Jerome
There is a 3-way tie for first place between Minico, Wood River, and Twin Falls. Jerome is eliminated and misses the playoffs.

The tiebreaker in this scenario is still being decided by the conference's athletic directors. I'm told they are leaning towards a 3-way coin flip since it's for seeding only, but if they do decide to go forward with a Kansas City Playoff it would be held on Monday October 24th at Jerome HS.

If Minico beats Wood River and Jerome beats Twin Falls
Minico finishes first and takes seed 4A, Wood River finishes second and takes seed 4B, Jerome finishes third and takes seed 4C, with Twin Falls missing the playoffs.


4A District 5-6 Conference

Total berths to the state tournament: three.

Clinched Playoff Berth
Skyline Grizzlies - conference champion, seed 5-6A
Blackfoot Broncos

Still In Contention
Idaho Falls Tigers
Pocatello Indians

Eliminated
Preston Indians
Century Diamondbacks

Skyline has no more conference games and are into the postseason no matter the results of the final regular season games. Blackfoot is also in the postseason, however we do not know which seed they will earn. Pocatello and Idaho Falls are still in the mix.

Pocatello hosts Blackfoot on Friday and Idaho Falls squares off against Century this Thursday. Here are the scenarios:

If Blackfoot beats Pocatello and Idaho Falls beats Century
Blackfoot takes seed 5-6B, Idaho Falls takes seed 5-6C, Pocatello is eliminated.

If Blackfoot beats Pocatello and Century beats Idaho Falls
Blackfoot takes seed 5-6B, Idaho Falls takes seed 5-6C, Pocatello is eliminated.

If Pocatello beats Blackfoot and Century beats Idaho Falls
Pocatello takes seed 5-6B, Blackfoot takes seed 5-6C, and Idaho Falls is eliminated.

If Pocatello beats Blackfoot and Idaho Falls beats Century
The 3-way point differential tiebreaker is implemented (see next paragraph down).

This season, the 4A District 5-6 Conference has decided to adopt the Azzie point differential tiebreaking system that the 5A District 5-6 Conference implemented last season. You can read more on that system in the 4A District 3 Southern Idaho Conference section above. The points are also capped at 13, instead of the cap of 14 used in the 4A Southern Idaho Conference.

Here's what it looks like currently between Blackfoot, Idaho Falls, and Pocatello:

Idaho Falls
Beat Pocatello 27-19. Differential: +8
Lost to Blackfoot 49-21. Differential: -13
Total differential = -5

Blackfoot
Beat Idaho Falls 49-21. Differential: +13
Total differential = +13
(Blackfoot plays Pocatello on Oct. 21)

Pocatello
Lost to Idaho Falls 27-19. Differential: -8
Total differential = -8
(Pocatello plays Blackfoot on Oct. 21)

What does this all mean? It means it's going to come down to how much Pocatello wins by against Blackfoot (assuming they get the win). Here's what I mean:

If Pocatello wins their game by 1-2 points, their final point differential would sit between -7 and -6 and Blackfoot's would sit between +12 and +11, which via the tiebreaker would have them behind Idaho Falls and Blackfoot, meaning they would be out of the playoffs. Blackfoot would finish second and take seed 5-6B, while Idaho Falls would finish third and take seed 5-6C.

If Pocatello wins their game by 3 points, their final point differential would sit right at -5, which is tied with Idaho Falls. Blackfoot's would sit at +10. However, Idaho Falls won the head-to-head matchup with Pocatello, so Pocatello would be out of the playoffs. Blackfoot would finish second and take seed 5-6B, while Idaho Falls would finish third and take seed 5-6C.

If Pocatello wins their game by 4-10 points, their final point differential would sit between -4 and +2, with Blackfoot's point differential sitting between +9 and +3. That would mean that Idaho Falls misses the playoffs, with Blackfoot finishing second and taking seed 5-6B and Pocatello finishing third and taking seed 5-6C.

If Pocatello wins their game by 11 or more points, their final point differential would sit between +3 and +5, with Blackfoot's point differential sitting between +2 and 0. That would mean that Idaho Falls misses the playoffs, with Pocatello finishing second and taking seed 5-6B, with Blackfoot finishing third and taking seed 5-6C.

Long story short, Pocatello HAS to beat Blackfoot by at least four points to make it to the playoffs AND hope that their crosstown rival Century can take down Idaho Falls in their regular season finale if they don't want to go to the point differential tiebreaker.




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