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Hello! And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.
We have four weeks remaining in the regular season, and conference title races are definitely taking shape statewide. Even though we are just past the midway point of the regular season, we have officially crossed into October, which means the postseason is nigh.
And, while it's true that no team has officially clinched a playoff berth yet, there are a large number of teams who can feel good about their playoff standing. That's because all six classifications award their berths based upon MaxPreps rankings to some degree, and some teams have compiled such impressive numbers in the rankings, that the only question is where they'll end up on the bracket, not if they will get in.
With that said, we're categorizing teams into three categories:
LOCK - These are teams that are mathematically assured of a playoff spot. We will be somewhat judicious in handing these out this week, but will get more lenient with each passing week of action.
WORK TO DO - These are teams that should feel pretty good about their playoff chances, with room to improve their standing with strong performances
ON THE BUBBLE - These are the teams that are either just sneaking in, or just being left out, in our current bracket projections. One good performance can alter the cut line drastically, so all of the teams lumped in here should try and handle business themselves, rather than tempt the mathematical gods at MaxPreps.
Without further ado, let's get to it!
CLASS 6A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (6 automatic bids)
District 5-6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (3 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Coeur d'Alene, Rocky Mountain, Timberline, Eagle, Owyhee, Rigby, Madison, Highland
ON THE BUBBLE - Post Falls, Middleton, Meridian, Capital, Boise, Mountain View, Kuna
With four weeks to go still, I'm not comfortable projecting anyone as a lock just yet. The Inland Empire League hasn't even start conference play, for crying out loud.
Rigby, Rocky Mountain and Eagle have a commanding lead in terms of the MaxPreps ranking, and are a combined 14-1 this season. Rigby hasn't played a conference game yet, and Madison and Highland promise to be difficult matchups. With North Idaho losing a second automatic bid, and the number of at-large berths increasing to three, it's likely that all three of Rigby, Highland and Madison will qualify.
Rocky Mountain and Eagle are off to 5-0 starts this year, as are Owyhee and Timberline. The battle for the Southern Idaho Conference River Division (between Rocky and Timberline) and Foothills Division (between Eagle and Owyhee) should be fun to watch. Meridian's narrow 21-20 win over Middleton gives the 1-4 Warriors a leg up on third place in the River Division, which means Middleton may have to travel to play the Foothills Division's third place finisher for an SIC cross-divisional playoff game in Week 10. The Vikings are near the cut line in terms of MaxPreps ranking, so that loss to Meridian stings.
As a reminder, the winner of each division (Foothills and River) will play each other in Week 10 for the SIC Championship, and regardless of that outcome, both participants will receive byes into the quarterfinal round of the 6A postseason.
Also in Week 10, the last-place finishers from each division will play each other (with neither team able to advance to the postseason), while the remaining four teams from each division will play in cross-divisional games. The cross-division games will look like this:
FOOTHILLS #5 at RIVER #2
RIVER #5 at FOOTHILLS #2
FOOTHILLS #4 at RIVER #3
RIVER #4 at FOOTHILLS #3
The winner of each cross-divisional game receives an auto bid to the playoffs, while the losers will compete with teams from north and east Idaho for one of the two at-large bids available in this bracket.
Right now, Coeur d'Alene would be the only team to qualify for the playoffs from the north. Post Falls and Lake City will have their chances to qualify via the IEL title, while Coeur d'Alene could probably still squeak out an at-large bid if they needed to.
CLASS 5A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (2 automatic bids)
District 4 (2 automatic bids)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Sandpoint, Lakeland, Bishop Kelly, Vallivue, Minico, Twin Falls, Century, Hillcrest, Skyline, Blackfoot
ON THE BUBBLE - Lewiston, Bonneville, Shelley, Pocatello, Columbia, Preston, Nampa, Emmett, Skyview, Ridgevue
This is a large bracket, where 16 of 25 teams statewide get to compete in the postseason. Right now, winless Shelley (0-5) is the #13 seed. Basically, if you don't make the playoffs in this classification, you've got no one to blame but yourself.
Along those same lines, it's somewhat surprising to see Emmett (3-3), Skyview (2-3) and Ridgevue (4-1) out of the playoff picture right now. It's doubly surprising to see all of them slotted below Nampa (1-5) in the pecking order, but strength of schedule matters. Nampa has played several 6A schools this year, and the MaxPreps computers obviously don't think much of the Southern Idaho Conference in general.
One distinction to this bracket is the fact that the top eight seeds are all awarded based upon pre-determined auto bids based upon district representation. It leads to some funky results, like the 5th (Sandpoint) and 8th (Blackfoot) teams in the MaxPreps rankings actually being slotted at 9th and 10th in our current projections.
Right now, the top 11 teams all look fairly safe. Unlike last year, the number of teams hovering around the cut line is larger, with any team ranked between 12 and 20 currently holding a realistic shot at qualifying for the postseason.
CLASS 4A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Sugar-Salem, Homedale, Fruitland, Kimberly, Teton, Weiser, American Falls, Buhl, Snake River
ON THE BUBBLE - South Fremont, McCall-Donnelly, Bonners Ferry, Filer, Bear Lake, Gooding, Moscow, Cole Valley Christian, Payette
There's a clear line right now between the top nine teams, and everyone else. Teams like Moscow (4-2), Cole Valley Christian (3-2) and Payette (3-2) are on the outside looking in right now, far removed from the top 12 position they need (they currently rank 16, 17 and 18, respectively). Even Gooding (3-1) and Filer (4-1) are ranked 15th and 13th, respectively.
Right now, the final playoff berth would belong to Bonners Ferry, although the Badgers, #11 McCall-Donnelly and #10 South Fremont are all separated by less than a point, so none of those three are safe right now. Needless to say, the teams below the cut line will need to spring an upset or two along the way, while hoping the strong strength of schedule rating for the teams ahead of them doesn't keep them too far ahead.
CLASS 3A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4-5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - West Side, Ririe, North Fremont, Aberdeen, Declo, Nampa Christian, West Jefferson
ON THE BUBBLE - Malad, New Plymouth, Melba, Marsing, Soda Springs, Firth, Grangeville, St. Maries, Kellogg, Priest River
This is the toughest classification to figure out right now. But according to MaxPreps, it's fairly simple: the top seven teams are all fairly settled. And the next six are similarly grouped together. That leaves 13 teams right now for 12 spots, but you'll notice that the highest-ranked team from north Idaho's Central Idaho League currently is #15 St. Maries, so really it's 13 teams fighting for 11 spots. Firth (1-5), Grangeville (2-4) and Priest River (2-3) were all playoff teams a year ago, and all are currently on the outside looking in according to our projections. Priest River is tied with St. Maries with identical 1-0 CIL records, but we deferred to the Lumberjacks because they have the higher MaxPreps number right now. Make no mistake, though: north Idaho is only getting one team in.
CLASS 2A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Kendrick, Kamiah, Grace, Logos, Raft River, Potlatch, Prairie, Hagerman, Valley
ON THE BUBBLE - Glenns Ferry, Murtaugh, Butte County, Clearwater Valley, Idaho City, Notus, Rimrock
The top nine teams can all feel pretty comfortable about their seat at the table. But there's lots to play for, as the Whitepine League (District 2) and Snake River Conference (District 4) races will be tight to the finish, with the winners receiving a critical first-round bye.
We have seeded the quarterfinal teams assuming that all of the higher-ranked teams will advance. If a lower-seeded team advances, then a potential conference champ could move up into a hosting role for the quarterfinals.
The most interesting races will occur in District 3's Western Idaho Conference, as well as the small scrum of teams fighting for the final few playoff spots. Idaho City looks like the favorite in the WIC, although Rimrock and Notus won the conference crown in 2024 and 2023, respectively, and will have something to say about the league race.
As for those final few teams on the cut line, Butte County is actually our first team out right now. A slow start by last year's state runners-up has put the Pirates behind the eight-ball, but a superior strength of schedule is keeping them in the race for now. Butte County probably needs to defeat Grace in the two-team High Desert Conference race to secure their place.
CLASS 1A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Tri-Valley, Carey, Genesee, Wallace, Council
ON THE BUBBLE - Garden Valley, Hansen, Salmon River, Coeur du Christ, Richfield, Deary, Rockland, Mackay, Challis, Timberline, Shoshone
This may be the most clear cut classification in Idaho. The top 12 teams are all on the positive side of MaxPreps' magic formula, while all of the teams looking up are on the negative side of that differential. And, in a nice change of pace, all five projected conference champions are ranked in the top 12 also, so no bid-stealing this year.
Challis, Mackay and Rockland will fight tooth and nail for the Rocky Mountain Conference title in east Idaho. That league probably only gets one bid into the postseason. Challis defeated Mackay last Friday, while Rockland still has to face both squads. Timberline could also play its way into contention with a win over Genesee on October 17th.
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