Idaho High School Football Bracketology (One Week Remaining)

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We’ve arrived.  The final week of the Idaho high school football season.  Some teams are beginning to make playoff plans, while others will wait with anticipation, like a youngster on Christmas morning.  Who’s in?  Who’s out?  What do the brackets look like?  We’ll get to all of it below.

Some teams have officially clinched playoff berths.  We may not know where they’ll finish in their respective conference standings, or where they’ll slot in on the bracket, but at a minimum we know they’ve qualified.  Teams that have already clinched playoff spots will be listed in bold font.

Amazingly, there are still several tiebreaker scenarios that could present themselves.  In those cases, we’ll outline how everything could play out, but for our official projections, we’ll defer to the team with the higher MaxPreps ranking.

Speaking of MaxPreps rankings, I do my best within the parameters of the system.  The MaxPreps ratings formula is only as good as the data it’s drawing from.  As of Tuesday morning, a handful of scores from last Friday have still not been entered into MaxPreps, which skews the data somewhat.  It’s an incredibly frustrating process for fans and coaches alike.

All opinions listed below are my own.  Disagree?  Send me an email at brandon@idahosports.com.


CLASS 5A

District 1-2 (2 bids)

Coeur d’Alene
Post Falls


District 3 (7 bids)

Eagle
Meridian
Rocky Mountain
Boise
Owyhee
Middleton
Mountain View


District 5-6 (2 bids)

Highland
Rigby


At-Large (1 bid)

Borah


FIRST ROUND BYES

E1 Highland (7-1)
W1B Meridian (6-2)
W1A Eagle (7-0)
N1 Coeur d’Alene (6-2)


FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS

W5 Owyhee (6-2) at W4 Rocky Mountain (5-3)
W7 Mountain View (5-3) at N2 Post Falls (5-3)
W6 Middleton (6-2) at E2 Rigby (4-4)
At-Large Borah (4-4) at W3 Boise (6-2)


Up north, Coeur d’Alene took a significant step forward with its home win over Post Falls last Friday.  But the Vikings must avoid a letdown in the regular season finale against Lewiston.  Currently, the Vikings are 2-0 in Inland Empire League play, while Post Falls and Lewiston are both 1-1.  Coeur d’Alene faces Lewiston on Friday; Post Falls will host Lake City on Thursday on IdahoSports.com.

A Lewiston win coupled with a Post Falls loss to Lake City would give the Bengals the Inland Empire League title.  Coeur d’Alene would finish second in that scenario.  Even a Lewiston win over Coeur d’Alene and a Post Falls win over Lake City would keep the Bengals in the thick of things.  In that scenario, the three powers would finish with identical 2-1 records.  That exact situation unfolded two years ago, with the same three teams, and they met for a Kansas City Tiebreaker the Monday after the regular season ended to settle the score.

The most straightforward path are victories from Coeur d’Alene and Post Falls, which would relegate Lewiston to third place and out of the running as an At-Large team.  The Bengals’ MaxPreps rating simply isn’t strong enough to catch either of the teams ahead of it (Madison and Borah.)

Speaking of Borah, we are projecting the Lions to win the At-Large bid, but Borah could certainly earn an auto bid by defeating Middleton in their Southern Idaho Conference cross-divisional playoff game Friday on IdahoSports.com.  The official matchups have been set. 

Essentially, the Foothills Division has six teams, while the River Division has seven.  The top team from each division will play in the Southern Idaho Conference Championship Game, and both will automatically receive top-four seeds and first round byes into the 5A playoffs.  The rest of the cross-divisional games will play out like this:

River 2 vs. Foothills 6
River 3 vs. Foothills 5
River 4 vs. Foothills 4
Foothills 3 vs. River 5
Foothills 2 vs. River 6

The winners of those five games will receive the District's auto bids.  One lucky loser may grab the at-large bid, but it's no guarantee.  The SIC Championship Game has already been set: River Division champ Eagle will host Foothills Division winner Meridian Friday on IdahoSports.com.  The Mustangs defeated the Warriors 36-33 way back at the start of the year, so the rematch should be entertaining.  No matter what happens, though, both Eagle and Meridian have clinched first round byes into the postseason.  Here’s what the rest of the cross-divisional games look like:

Boise (River 2) vs. Centennial (Foothills 6)
Owyhee (River 3) vs. Timberline (Foothills 5)
Mountain View (River 4) vs. Capital (Foothills 4)
Middleton (Foothills 3) vs. Borah (River 5)
Rocky Mountain (Foothills 2) vs. Kuna (River 6)

We are projecting all of the home teams to win.  The most difficult matchup to gage is Borah vs. Middleton.  In our current projections, Middleton wins the game and Borah gets the at-large bid. Middleton is actually one spot higher than Borah according to MaxPreps, so even with a loss, Middleton would still get the at-large berth.  That changes if either Coeur d’Alene or Rigby fail to capture an auto bid.  In that scenario, the Vikings and Trojans (in that order) would rank ahead of Middleton/Borah.

The loser of the Middleton-Borah game could also fall out of the playoffs if Mountain View, Rocky Mountain, Boise or Owyhee were to suffer an upset loss in the SIC cross-divisional game.  The Mavs, Brave, Storm, and Grizzlies (in that order) all rank ahead of not just Borah and Middleton, but Coeur d’Alene and Rigby, also.

As for Rigby, the Trojans will play Madison in a do-or-die contest for both teams.  The winner takes second place in the High Country Conference and gets the auto bid that comes with it.  If Rigby loses, there’s a good chance they can scoop up the auto bid.  Madison has to win this game.  They are too far behind too many teams in the current MaxPreps ratings.


CLASS 4A

District 1-2 (1 bid)

Sandpoint


District 3 (2 bids)

Bishop Kelly
Skyview


District 4 (2 bids)

Twin Falls
Minico


District 5 (1 bid)

Pocatello


District 6 (2 bids)

Hillcrest
Skyline


At-Large (8 bids)

Shelley, Bonneville, Emmett, Lakeland, Idaho Falls, Canyon Ridge, Preston, Burley


FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS

#16 Burley (3-5) at #1 Hillcrest (8-0)
#9 Shelley (4-4) at #8 Sandpoint (5-3)
#13 Idaho Falls (3-5) at #4 Twin Falls (7-1)
#12 Lakeland (4-4) at #5 Minico (6-2)
#15 Preston (3-5) at #2 Pocatello (4-2)
#10 Bonneville (3-5) at #7 Skyview (6-2)
#14 Canyon Ridge (6-2) at #3 Bishop Kelly
#11 Emmett (5-3) at #6 Skyline (5-3)


The bracket will once again be divided up by auto bids and at-large spots.  The eight auto bids will automatically receive the top eight seeds, and will be ranked according to their MaxPreps ranking.  That's why Sandpoint, despite being a conference champ, would only be the six seed overall.  Likewise, the eight at-large teams will then be seeded 9-16 based upon MaxPreps ranking.

Seven of the eight auto bids have been decided.  The only top-eight seed yet to be decided will go to the winner of Friday night’s Skyline vs. Shelly contest on IdahoSports.com.

You might be thinking, couldn’t Pocatello lose to Century this Friday on IdahoSports.com and create a three-way tie for first place between Pocatello, Century and Preston?  Technically, yes, but the tiebreaker used to settle the score is MaxPreps ranking.  And Pocatello is so far ahead of the other two squads that a Thunder district title is pretty much a certainty.

As for the eight at-large teams, I think they’re all in a pretty good spot.  The closest at-large contender, Columbia, is over five MaxPreps points away from Burley for the final spot.  I just don’t think the ‘Cats will be able to make up the difference.


CLASS 3A

District 1 (1 bid)

Timberlake


District 3 (3 bids)

Homedale
Weiser
McCall-Donnelly


District 4 (3 bids)

Kimberly
Buhl
Wood River


District 5 (2 bids)

Snake River
American Falls


District 6 (2 bids)

Sugar-Salem
Teton


At-Large (3 bids)

Marsh Valley
Fruitland
Gooding


FIRST ROUND BYES

#1 Sugar-Salem (7-0)
#2 Homedale (8-0)


FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS

#14 Gooding (2-6) at #3 Kimberly (8-0)
#13 Wood River (4-5) at #4 Snake River (5-3)
#12 Fruitland (2-6) at #5 Timberlake (4-4)
#11 American Falls (3-5) at #6 Teton (6-1)
#10 Marsh Valley (1-7) at #7 Weiser (7-1)
#9 Buhl (5-3) at #8 McCall-Donnelly (6-1)


The Class 3A bracket awards the top five seeds to the five district champions.  However, only MaxPrep's two highest ranked district champs will receive first round byes. The other three will have to host first round games.  The remaining seeds (6-14) are determined also using MaxPreps rankings.

Up north, it’s simple.  Timberlake travels north to Bonners Ferry on Friday, and the winner will claim the two-team Intermountain League title.  Timberlake is heavily favored in that contest, and anyone on the bubble should be cheering for the Tigers.  Bonners Ferry is currently ranked too low to grab an at-large bid to state, but if the Badgers win the auto bid, that would push someone else out.  For the moment, that’s Gooding.

Amazingly, nothing has still been clinched in District 3.  That’s because two monumental matchups are on tap for Friday: Homedale at McCall-Donnelly and Fruitland at Weiser.  Here’s how the standings currently look:

Homedale         4-0
Weiser              3-1
McCall-D.          3-1
Fruitland           2-2

If the Vandals knock off Homedale and Weiser defeats Fruitland, that would create a three-way tie for first place.  The Trojans, Wolverines and Vandals would all be 4-1.

Conversely, if Homedale defeats McCall-Donnelly, and Fruitland scores a road win at Weiser, then the Vandals, Grizzlies and Wolverines would all be tied for second place at 3-2.

This same scenario happened two years ago, and it was decided via a Kansas City Tiebreaker the following Monday.  All four teams are safely into the playoffs, but it’s the race for the conference title that’s important, as a top-five seed comes along with it.

If there is a three-way tie for first, the conference would use the Kansas City Tiebreaker to decide the league champ.  A three-way tie for second would be decided by the “Azzie” points system.  Honestly, if that happened, the MaxPreps seedings likely wouldn’t change that much, so Weiser, McCall-Donnelly and Fruitland can all feel good about their chances.

District 4 is completely finalized.  Kimberly’s victory over Buhl last Friday assured the Bulldogs a first place finish in the Sawtooth Central Idaho Conference.  Even if the Bulldogs lost their season finale on Friday against Gooding, the only team that could catch Kimberly in the loss column is Buhl…who the Bulldogs just beat. 

A Buhl win over Filer on Friday would wrap up second place for the Indians while relegating Wood River to third.  But let’s say the winless Wildcats knocked off Buhl.  That result, coupled with a Gooding win over Kimberly, would create a three-way tie for second.  Buhl, Gooding and Wood River would all be 2-2, but the Indians would still win the tiebreaker thanks to head-to-head victories over the Senators and Wolverines.  Similarly, Wood River’s win over Gooding last week assures that Wood River can finish no lower than third.

Snake River won the South East Idaho Conference in District 5 last Friday with a come-from-behind win over American Falls.  The Panthers will be assured a top-five seed for the opening round of the playoffs, and currently edge out Timberlake for the number four seed.

As for the Beavers, they’ll play Marsh Valley on Friday in a game that will decide the league’s second auto bid.  But realistically, despite Marsh Valley’s 1-7 record, both teams are still comfortably in via MaxPreps ratings.

District 6 also remains unsettled. Such is life in a three-team league.  Sugar-Salem cleared the first hurdle with their runaway win over Teton last Friday.  Teton has finished Mountain Rivers Conference play with a 1-1 record, and has to hope that South Fremont can upset the Diggers on Friday night to force a three-way tie amongst the three teams for the league championship.  If that scenario unfolded, the three rivals would meet on Monday in a Kansas City Tiebreaker. 

This is crucially important for South Fremont, who currently is out of the playoff picture.  Granted, the Cougars would not only need to beat Sugar-Salem, but also win the Kansas City Tiebreaker, but a path to the playoffs is possible.  Again, fans in Gooding and Fruitland should be cheering for the Diggers to avoid having their seat at the playoff table sniped away from there.


CLASS 2A


District 1-2 (1 bid)

Grangeville


District 3 (1 bid)

Melba


District 4 (1 bid)

Declo


District 5 (1 bid)

West Side


District 6 (1 bid)

North Fremont


At-Large (6 bids)

Nampa Christian, Aberdeen, Bear Lake, Wendell, Firth, Marsing


FIRST ROUND BYES

#1 Declo (8-0)
#2 North Fremont (6-1)
#3 West Side (5-2)
#4 Melba (6-1)
#5 Grangeville (4-3)


FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS

#11 Marsing (5-3) at #6 Nampa Christian (5-2)
#10 Firth (2-4) at #7 Aberdeen (4-3)
#9 Wendell (5-3) at #8 Bear Lake (4-3)


What a difference a week makes.  It’s tempting to start at the bottom, where Marsing has supplanted Ririe as the final team in, but let’s start with the two teams that clinched auto bids, district titles and first round byes all in one fell swoop.

Grangeville’s win over Kellogg last Friday put the Bulldogs at 3-0 in Central Idaho League play.  The undefeated league champs are actually on a bye this week, so in an odd twist, when Grangeville takes the field for their playoff opener, they’ll do coming off of a two-week layoff.  The Bulldogs will be the only team from the north that qualifies for the playoffs this year, and even then, MaxPreps isn’t impressed.  Grangeville is ranked 14th among all Class 2A schools, and there are only 11 teams in the 2A playoffs.

Meanwhile, West Side wrapped up the District 5 title with a tight win over Aberdeen last Friday.  The Pirates finish the year with Malad, but even a loss won’t prevent the 3-0 Pirates from losing their grip on the conference.  Bear Lake and Aberdeen are both currently 2-1, and happen to play each other on Friday.  The winner of that came could theoretically tie West Side at 3-1 should the Pirates lose, but West Side has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both the Bears and Tigers.

Speaking of Malad, we’ve lamented the fact that the Dragons, currently ranked 10th in MaxPreps rating, will most likely miss out on the playoffs due to a new rule to the 2A bracket this year.  To recap, this is a unique bracket that awards the five district champions the top five seeds and a first-round bye.  The remaining six bids are then awarded to MaxPreps' six highest ranked teams, with one new caveat: No district shall receive more than two at-large bids.

With both Bear Lake and Aberdeen slotting ahead of Malad, could a Dragons upset win over West Side move the needle enough to catapult them ahead of either the Bears or Tigers and into the playoffs?  Based on previous history, no.  Of course, the MaxPreps rating formula is shrouded in mystery, but it’s this writer’s opinion that the computers don’t move the needle as much for late season wins.

That isn’t a hard and fast rule, though.  Take, for example, Marsing.  The Huskies had been on the outside looking in for each of the first two editions of our Bracketology exercise.  Marsing’s win over Cole Valley Christian last week in its season finale was huge.  But even more importantly, the team ranked ahead of them, Ririe, really struggled in a 12-6 overtime win over winless West Jefferson.  I believe that Ririe’s narrow win, coupled with Marsing’s larger margin of victory, was enough to lift the Huskies into the final playoff spot.

But therein lies the rub: Marsing is done for the regular season, while Ririe still has a chance to play their way back into the playoff picture.  The Bulldogs are at North Fremont on Friday night, and while a win would certainly vault Ririe back in, even a tight loss to the second-ranked team might be enough.

Also of importance is the possibility of a three-way tie in District 6.  If Ririe defeats North Fremont, and Firth defeats West Jefferson, the Bulldogs, Huskies and Cougars would all finish 2-1 in Nuclear Conference play.  In that scenario, a Kansas City Tiebreaker would be held to determine the league champ and the first round bye that accompanies it.

In District 3, in addition to Marsing sweating bullets, Melba and Nampa Christian will meet up to decide the Western Idaho Conference championship.  Both teams are 3-0 in WIC play, and the winner gets the first round bye in the opening round of the playoffs.  We’re projecting Melba based on a higher MaxPreps rating, which would set up an interesting first round game if everything holds: Marsing at Nampa Christian.  The Trojans won 24-8 earlier this year.

Finally, in District 4, Wendell meets Declo to decide the two-team Canyon Conference title this Friday.  At stake is not just the first round bye and district title, but for undefeated Declo, a win would keep the Hornets locked in as the #1 seed during the playoffs.  A loss would certainly drop Declo behind North Fremont and even West Side, a team that Declo beat earlier this year.  Either way, both teams are comfortably in.


CLASS 1AD1


District 2 (3 bids)

Logos
Kamiah
Potlatch


District 3 (2 bids)

Notus
Rimrock


District 4 (3 bids)

Oakley
Murtaugh
Lighthouse Christian


District 5-6 (1 bid)

Butte County


At-Large (3 bids)

Grace
Valley
Carey


FIRST ROUND BYES

#1 Oakley (6-1)
#2 Butte County (7-1)
#3 Logos (7-0)
#4 Notus (5-1)


FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS

#12 Rimrock (2-5) at #5 Kamiah (6-1)
#11 Carey (2-5) at #6 Grace (5-2)
#10 Valley (4-4) at #7 Murtaugh (5-2)
#9 Potlatch (6-1) at #8 Lighthouse Christian (5-2)

Congrats are in order for both Oakley and Notus, who officially clinched their district championships and first round byes with wins a week ago.  No matter what happens this week, the Hornets and Pirates can rest easy knowing that they will come out on the right side of all tiebreakers.  In fact, everyone else in District 4 has lost twice in league play, while Oakley is still unbeaten.  So even an Oakley loss to Glenns Ferry would still give the Hornets the outright league title.

But the rest of District 4, well, it’s a bit of a hot mess.  Here’s what we know, in addition to Oakley finishing first:

Lighthouse Christian (3-2 in league) is at Murtaugh (also 3-2).  The winner of that game will finish 4-2 and will take second place, leaving one final auto bid available.  Both Carey and Valley are in play for that third slot, along with the Lighthouse/Murtaugh loser.  Carey plays Raft River on Friday, while Valley has a non-conference battle with Notus.  Here’s the current District 4 standings heading into the final week:

Lighthouse        3-2
Murtaugh          3-2
Valley               3-3
Carey                2-3

And here’s how things could shake out:

LIGHTHOUSE BEATS MURTAUGH
CAREY BEATS RAFT RIVER

Lighthouse        4-2
Carey                3-3
Murtaugh          3-3
Valley               3-3

In this scenario, Carey would finish third thanks to head-to-head wins over both Murtaugh and Valley.  Murtaugh would then take fourth thanks to a win over Valley.  This is definitely the scenario Panthers fans should be cheering for.

Additionally, we could see this happen:

MURTAUGH BEATS LIGHTHOUSE
CAREY BEATS RAFT RIVER

Murtaugh          4-2
Lighthouse        3-3
Carey                3-3
Valley               3-3

In that scenario, Valley, Lighthouse and Carey would all be tied for third, with each team having beaten the others in head-to-head matchups.  In that scenario, results against the other teams in the conference would be viewed, starting with the first place team.  If the tie still isn't broken, a Kansas City Playoff would take place.  More than likely, everyone makes it in anyways based on the strengths of MaxPreps, so this is all just semantics.

Up north in the Whitepine League, Logos officially clinched the regular season title with their victory over Troy last Thursday.  Even if the Knights stumble against Prairie in the regular season finale, Logos would still finish in first thanks to head-to-head wins over both Potlatch and Kamiah.

Speaking of Potlatch and Kamiah, those two will get together to decide the second and third place finishes in the league.  The winner will take second, and although the loser could theoretically be tied with Prairie for third place, both Kamiah and Potlatch have defeated the Pirates in head-to-head battles this year.

So for Prairie, the impetus is clear: beat Logos and pray that it’s enough to move their MaxPreps rating ahead of Carey or Valley.  That’s a tough pill to swallow for MaxPreps’ 11th ranked team, but with two auto bids from District 3 ranked below Prairie, that’s the harsh reality facing the Pirates.  Currently, Prairie is ten points behind Carey for the last playoff spot.  A Carey loss isn’t even necessarily a good thing, as Raft River, the team Carey’s playing, is only 0.30 points behind Prairie.  So if Raft River defeats the Panthers, it’s just as likely that they’ll move into the playoffs, and Prairie will still be stuck at home.  Honestly, a Prairie blowout win over Logos and a Valley blowout loss to Notus may be the only way in, and even then, it’s just a glimmer.  As a reminder, the MaxPreps rating algorithm caps victory of margin at 15 points.  That’s what we mean when we say “blowout.”

Finally, District 5-6’s championship will be decided when Grace hosts Butte County.  Both teams are comfortably in, but the winner gets a first round bye and top four seed.


CLASS 1AD2

District 1 (2 bids)

Mullan/St. Regis
Lakeside


District 2 (2 bids)

Kendrick
Lewis County


District 3 (3 bids)

Council
Garden Valley
Tri-Valley


District 4 (3 bids)

Camas County
Hagerman
Dietrich


District 5-6 (2 bids)

Rockland
Watersprings


FIRST ROUND BYES

1A Mullan/St. Regis (7-1)
2A Kendrick (6-0)
4A Camas County (6-1)
5-6A Rockland (5-2)


FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS

5-6B Watersprings (4-3) at 4B Hagerman (6-2)
4C Dietrich (6-2) at 3A Council (5-3)
3C Tri-Valley (5-2) at 1B Lakeside (3-5)
2B Lewis County (3-4) at 3B Garden Valley (6-2)


The only teams that can put their names on the bracket in ink are Mullan/St. Regis and Council.  Hagerman, Dietrich, Camas County, Garden Valley and Tri-Valley have all officially clinched spots, but where they end up on the bracket remains to be seen.

We’re going to start with the simplest outcomes and work our way down.  That takes us to District 3, where Council officially won the Long Pin Conference title with last week’s victory over Garden Valley.  In an equally simple outcome, Garden Valley faces Tri-Valley on Friday.  The winner takes second place, while the loser finishes third.  See, that wasn’t so bad!

But we’re just getting warmed up.  Let’s go north, to District 1, where we at least know that Mullan/St. Regis has won the regular season title.  That’s huge, because it gives the Tigers home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The second playoff spot will come down to Lakeside and Clark Fork, and each are 2-3 in North Star League play.  The Knights defeated the Wampus Cats earlier this year in Worley, 37-16, so Lakeside has the upper hand.  But what’s to say that Clark Fork doesn’t win the rematch? Either way, the winner will move to 3-3 in league play while the loser will fall to 2-4, so this is a do-or-die, winner-gets-in, affair.  And you can watch it for free this Friday on IdahoSports.com.

Let’s keep it rolling in District 4.  We know that Camas County, Hagerman and Dietrich will be the three teams representing the Sawtooth Conference at state.  What we don’t know is how everything will shake out.  Here’s the current standings:

Camas Co.        4-0        Win over Hagerman
Hagerman         3-1        Loss to Camas Co., Win over Dietrich
Dietrich             3-1        Loss to Camas Co.

Everything hinges on Friday’s season finale between Dietrich and Camas County.  For the purposes of this exercise, we’re also going to assume that Hagerman beats winless Shoshone.  If the Pirates somehow lost, a Dietrich loss would still give Hagerman second place.  A Camas County loss would drop Hagerman to third.

Alright, back to the Dietrich-Camas County game.  If the Mushers win, it’s pretty straightforward:

Camas Co.        5-0        Win over Hagerman, Win over Dietrich
Hagerman         4-1        Loss to Camas Co., Win over Dietrich
Dietrich             3-2        Loss to Camas Co., Loss to Hagerman

But if Dietrich, wins, well, it gets kind of sticky:

Camas Co.        4-1        Win over Hagerman, Loss to Dietrich
Hagerman         4-1        Win over Dietrich, Loss to Camas Co.
Dietrich             4-1        Win over Camas Co., Loss to Hagerman

In years past, any tiebreaker scenario in the Sawtooth Conference has been settled by a Kansas City Tiebreaker.  The league’s Athletic Directors are exploring using other criteria, such as point differential or a coin flip to resolve the tie.

Alright, now we’re really going to get into the weeds.  Let’s go to District 2, where Kendrick pretty much has things on lockdown.  Right?  RIGHT?!?!

Well, kind of.  Let’s look at the current standings:

Kendrick           2-0
Lewis Co.          1-1
Deary               1-1
Timberline         0-2

Kendrick plays Deary on Friday, while Lewis County faces Timberline.  It’s not likely, but Deary could spring the upset over Kendrick.  And with the same level of likeliness, we could see Timberline defeat Lewis County.  So there are four possible outcomes still on the table in the final week of the regular season.

IF KENDRICK AND LEWIS COUNTY WIN

Kendrick           3-0
Lewis Co.          2-1
Deary               1-2
Timberline         0-3

This is the simplest outcome.  This is what Kendrick and Lewis County are hoping for.

IF KENDRICK AND TIMBERLINE WIN

Kendrick           3-0
Lewis Co.          1-2
Deary               1-2
Timberline         1-2

This would create a three-way tie for second place between Lewis County, Deary and Timberline, with all three having defeated each other during the season.

IF DEARY AND LEWIS COUNTY WIN

Kendrick           2-1
Lewis Co.          2-1
Deary               2-1
Timberline         0-3

This would create a three-way tie for first place between Kendrick, Lewis County, and Deary, again with all three having defeated each other during the season.

IF DEARY AND TIMBERLINE WIN

Kendrick           2-1
Deary               2-1
Lewis Co.          1-2
Timberline         1-2

This is the least likely scenario, but like the famous movie Dumb and Dumber proclaimed, “You’re saying there’s a chance.”

So, how does the tie get broken?  Here’s what the official Whitepine League Constitution states on the matter.

If two teams split or three or more teams tie and no head-to-head decision can be made, the champion will be determined using a point system as follows:

1. A victory will count as a “plus” for the winning team and a “minus” for the losing team depending upon the final margin of victory.  Games decided

(Team A beats Team B by four points in their first meeting)
(Team B beats Team A by 9 points in the second meeting)
(Team A receives 4 points for the first game and -9 for the second game)
(Team B receives -4 points for the first game and +9 for the second game)
(Team B is the champion, +5, vs. Team A’s -5)

Games decided by 20 or more points would count no more or no less than +20 or -20.  This would eliminate the need to “run up the score.”

With that said, it’s very unlikely that Kendrick would be on the wrong side of any type of point differential system.  So let’s focus on that potential three-way tie between Deary, Lewis County and Timberline.  Here’s everyone’s point differentials thus far.

LEWIS CO.       +2 against Deary
DEARY             -2 against Lewis Co., +20 against Timberline
TIMBERLINE     -20 against Deary

So Deary’s total is locked in at +18.  Timberline, with a 20 point win against Lewis County, would still only reach zero.  Therefore, it’s my understanding that the Spartans cannot make the postseason.

So even if Timberline defeats Lewis County, they would still hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Deary, with both holding 1-2 records.  Therefore, the only way Deary can get in is to defeat Kendrick and have Lewis County fall to Timberline.

OK, everybody nice and confused?  Awesome!  We saved the best for last.

Let’s finish in District 5-6, the good ol’ Rocky Mountain Conference.  Here’s where things stand going into Friday’s action:

Rockland          2-0        Win over Watersprings, Win over Mackay
Watersprings     1-1        Loss to Rockland, Win over North Gem
North Gem        1-1        Loss to Watersprings, Win over Mackay
Mackay             0-2        Loss to Rockland, Loss to North Gem

The final Friday of the season pits Rockland against North Gem, and Mackay against Watersprings.  Here are the scenarios, presented in increasing order of difficulty:

IF ROCKLAND AND WATERSPRINGS WIN

Rockland          3-0
Watersprings     2-1
North Gem        1-2
Mackay             0-3

This is the most straightforward path.  This is what Rockland and Watersprings fans should be hoping for.

IF ROCKLAND AND MACKAY WIN

Rockland          3-0
Watersprings     1-2
North Gem        1-2
Mackay             1-2

This creates a three-way tie for the second and final playoff berth.

IF NORTH GEM AND WATERSPRINGS WIN

Rockland          2-1
Watersprings     2-1
North Gem        2-1
Mackay             0-3

Well, well, well, we’ve got ourselves a three-way tie for first place.

IF NORTH GEM AND MACKAY  WIN

Rockland          2-1
North Gem        2-1
Mackay             1-2
Watersprings     1-2

Another straightforward scenario, but probably the least likely to occur.

If there is a tiebreaker that needs to be broken, it will decided in this order:

1. Head to Head Result
2. Point Differential
3. Coin Flip

By virtue of a 60-8 win over Watersprings and a 59-12 win over Mackay, any point differential will favor Rockland.  So the Bulldogs can feel pretty good about their chances.  If there were a tie between Watersprings, North Gem and Mackay for second place, though, it could get interesting.  Here’s where everyone stands:

Watersprings     +6 against North Gem
North Gem        -6 against Watersprings, +6 against Mackay
Mackay             -6 against North Gem

So North Gem sits at zero, Watersprings is +6 and Mackay is -6.  That means, a Mackay win by seven or more would give the Miners the edge in the tiebreaker.  A win by exactly six would bring on the coin flip.

However all of the crazy postseason shenanigans shake out, don’t forget to check back on IdahoSports.com for the latest bracket info, scores and schedule updates.  Good luck everyone!