Idaho High School Football Bracketology (One Week Remaining)

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Hello! And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.

With just one week to play in the regular season, some teams have already mathematically clinched a conference or league title, while others are mathematically "safe" when it comes to the MaxPreps rankings. Others, meanwhile, still have work to do and could be sweating things out until the actual brackets are unveiled.

When projecting how these brackets might look, and which teams are district champions, we first defer to the league standings. If there is a tie for first place, we will place the team with the higher MaxPreps ranking into the district champion slot.

Every bracket will feature 12 teams this year.

Without further ado, let's get to it!

CLASS 6A

Bid Allotment: North (2), East (2), West (5), At-Large (3)
Seeds 1-4 will be given to the North #1, East #1, West #1 and West #2. They will then be ranked 1-4 by MaxPreps ranking
Seeds 5-12 will be ranked by MaxPreps rankings
High seed will host through the semifinals

We’ll start with the area that’s the most straightforward: District 3’s Southern Idaho Conference. Eagle has already wrapped up the River Division title and will enjoy a top four seed and first-round bye. In the Foothills Division, meanwhile, Rocky Mountain will face Mountain View on Friday. The winner gets the division and a top-four seed, the loser will get a first-round playoff game at home.

The other three auto berths available from District 3 will be given to the three teams with the best MaxPreps ranking: at this time those would go to the Rocky Mountain/Mountain View loser, Boise and Meridian. Right now, Owyhee is projected to grab one of the three at-large berths available while Kuna is the first team out of the playoff picture. Kuna and Meridian face each other on Friday in what could be an elimination game. Owyhee, meanwhile, needs to defeat Middleton to ensure solid playoff positioning. Capital, unfortunately, may be too far behind in the MaxPreps rankings (currently #13) to make a late run, even with a win over Timberline in their season finale.

Up north, District 1-2’s Inland Empire League gets two auto bids to the playoffs this year, and that’s a good thing for Lake City. Right now, the Timberwolves don’t have a high enough MaxPreps ranking (currently #14) to earn an at-large bid, so the auto bid is their only way in. Coeur d’Alene faces Post Falls and can wrap up the regular season title with a win. If Post Falls were to spring an upset, that would create a three-way tie for first between Coeur d’Alene, Lake City and Post Falls, which would be settled by a Kansas City Tiebreaker.

You’re going to hear us reference the Kansas City Tiebreaker a few more times throughout this piece, so here’s a quick refresher:

Essentially, it’s a mini scrimmage between two or more teams, similar to an early season jamboree.

The rules vary slightly. Some tiebreakers dictate each team start at the 40-yard line. Some start at the 35- or 25-yard line. Some eventually move to the 10-yard line. But the concept is the same.

Team A plays Team B. There is no clock, just like the college football overtime system. Team A starts on offense, while Team B starts on defense. If Team A scores, Team B then has to match that score for the round to continue. If Team B doesn't score on their possession, then Team A wins the round. Similarly, if Team B stops Team A on their possession, and then scores when they have the ball, then Team B wins the round.

The winner of the first round plays Team C. The winner of that matchup plays Team B. The round robin format is continued until someone is eliminated. These things can last 20 minutes or two hours, and everywhere in between.

Finally, there’s east Idaho’s High Country Conference, where two auto bids await. Amazingly, all four teams are in play for an auto bid, and three of the four can still win the regular season conference title, which carries a top four seed and first-round bye with it. Madison will play Rigby, while Highland will tangle with Thunder Ridge.

Here are the current 6A HCC standings, along with head-to-head results and point differential. The HCC caps its point differential at 12 points for tiebreaker purposes.

Rigby (2-0) – W over Thunder Ridge 28-27 (+1); W over Highland 21-18 (+3); +4 total
Thunder Ridge (1-1) – L to Rigby 28-27 (-1); W over Madison 21-20 (+1); 0 total
Madison (1-1) – W over Highland 17-6 (+11); L to Thunder Ridge 21-20 (-1); +10 total
Highland (0-2) – L to Madison 17-6 (-11); L to Rigby 21-18 (-3); -14 total

The first two scenarios are fairly straightforward. The remaining four are…not.

SCENARIO 1

Rigby defeats Madison
Thunder Ridge defeats Highland

Rigby would win the HCC with a perfect 3-0 record. Thunder Ridge would finish second and get the other auto bid with a 2-1 record. Madison (1-2) and Highland (0-3) would both get at-large bids via MaxPreps, most likely.

SCENARIO 2

Madison defeats Rigby
Highland defeats Thunder Ridge

Madison and Rigby would each finish with 2-1 records. The Bobcats would win the HCC by virtue of the head-to-head win over Rigby. Rigby would finish second and get the other auto bid. Highland (1-2) would technically finish third and would most likely receive an at-large bid. Thunder Ridge (1-2) would take last, and with a MaxPreps ranking of #11 currently, would be sweating out a playoff bid.

SCENARIO 3

Rigby defeats Madison
Highland defeats Thunder Ridge (by six points or more)
Rigby wins the HCC at 3-0. Highland, Madison and Thunder Ridge would all finish 1-2 and in a three-way tie for second. The three-way tiebreaking procedure in the HCC is as follows:

Point differential among the three teams (only in the games where they played each other)
The team with the lowest point differential is eliminated
The remaining two teams are slotted by who won the head-to-head matchup

So in this scenario, the point differentials would shake out like this
Madison – W over Highland 17-6 (+11); L to Thunder Ridge 21-20 (-1); + 10 total
Highland – L to Madison 17-6 (-11); W over Thunder Ridge by six (+6); -5 total
Thunder Ridge – W over Madison 21-20 (+5); L to Highland by six (-6); -5 total

Thunder Ridge would be eliminated. Even though they and Highland had the same differential, Highland wins the head-to-head tiebreaker. Once Thunder Ridge is eliminated, Madison earns second place by virtue of its head-to-head win over Highland.

SCENARIO 4

Rigby defeats Madison
Highland defeats Thunder Ridge by five points or less

Rigby wins the HCC at 3-0. Highland, Madison and Thunder Ridge are all tied for second at 1-2. Again, using the point differential tiebreaker, here’s how it would shake out:

Madison – W over Highland 17-6 (+11); L to Thunder Ridge 21-20 (-1) - +10 total
Thunder Ridge – W over Madison 21-20 (+1); L to Highland by five (-5) - -4 total
Highland – L to Madison 17-6 (-11); W over Thunder Ridge by five (+5) - -6 total

Highland would be eliminated with the lowest point differential. Then, Thunder Ridge, by virtue of its head-to-head win over Madison, would clinch second place. Madison would technically take third and Highland would finish fourth.

SCENARIO 5

Madison defeats Rigby by two or more points
Thunder Ridge defeats Highland

Madison, Rigby and Thunder Ridge would all tie for first at 2-1. Using the point differential system, here’s how it would look:

Madison – L to Thunder Ridge 21-20 (-1); W over Rigby by two (+2); +1 total
Thunder Ridge – W over Madison 21-20 (+1); L to Rigby 28-27 (-1); 0 total
Rigby – W over Thunder Ridge 28-27 (+1); L to Madison by two (-2); -1 total

Rigby would be eliminated on the point differential. Thunder Ridge would edge out Madison based on head-to-head, giving the Titans the HCC title. Madison would finish second and Rigby would take third.

SCENARIO 6

Madison defeats Rigby by one point
Thunder Ridge defeats Highland

Madison, Rigby and Thunder Ridge would all tie for first at 2-1. Using the point differential system, here’s how it would look:

Madison – L to Thunder Ridge 21-20 (-1); W over Rigby by one (+1); 0 total
Rigby – W over Thunder Ridge 28-27 (+1); L to Madison by one (-2); 0 total
Thunder Ridge – W over Madison 21-20 (+1); L to Rigby 28-27 (-1); 0 total

So all three teams would have point differentials of zero. So what happens then? The next tiebreaker is MaxPreps ranking, which means Rigby most likely would win the conference title.

CLASS 5A

4 District Champions receive auto bids
8 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
Seeds 1-12 will be ranked by MaxPreps rankings
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals

First, let’s look at the conference championship races. Bishop Kelly has already claimed District 3’s Southern Idaho Conference and Hillcrest has done the same in District 5-6. The other two are still up for grabs.

District 1-2’s Inland Empire League hinges on the Sandpoint vs. Lakeland matchup. If Lakeland wins, the Hawks are the outright IEL champs. A loss would put Lakeland, Sandpoint and Lewiston all at 1-1. The tie would be settled using a point differential system, capped at 12 points. If Sandpoint defeats Lakeland by eight or more points, Sandpoint wins the title. If Sandpoint wins by six points or less, Lakeland wins the title on the point differential. And if Sandpoint wins by exactly seven points (the same margin of victory Lakeland had over Lewiston and Lewiston had over Sandpoint), the point differential would be even. In that case, the tie would be settled by MaxPreps ranking. That could go any direction as Lakeland (#4), Lewiston (#5) and Sandpoint (#6) are all next to each other. At the end of the day, though, all three will have home playoff games to start their postseason runs, so the IEL title is mostly for bragging rights.

Finally, there’s District 4’s Great Basin Conference. If Twin Falls defeats Minico in the season finale, the Bruins win the GBC outright. If Minico wins, it would trigger a three-way tie between Twin Falls, Minico and Burley (Burley defeated Minico earlier this season). That three-way tie would be settled by MaxPreps ranking. Twin Falls is currently #7, Minico is #9 and Burley is #19, so mathematically, the Bobcats have no chance to win the GBC or advance to the playoffs.

A lot of the intrigue overall is at the bottom of the cut line, where #10 Skyline, #11 Shelley, #12 Bonneville, #13 Idaho Falls and #14 Century are all within three points of one another in the MaxPreps rankings. They all happen to be from the same conference, as well. #10 Skyline plays #11 Shelley, #12 Bonneville faces #13 Idaho Falls and Century battles #16 Pocatello. The Bonneville-Idaho Falls game is almost certainly an elimination game, but does Skyline have enough of a lead in MaxPreps that they would still qualify, even with a loss to Shelley? An outright win is the best path forward for both of those teams. And can Century, lurking at #14 overall, sneak through the carnage and move past the losers of the Bonneville-Idaho Falls and Shelley-Skyline games? All eyes will be on east Idaho this week.

CLASS 4A

5 District Champions receive auto bids
7 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
Seeds 1-12 will be ranked by MaxPreps rankings
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals
If two conference opponents play and one is the conference champion, the conference champion will host

Bonners Ferry officially clinched the Intermountain League title last week, and the #12 team in this week’s MaxPreps rankings will officially represent District 1-2 at state. Defending 4A champ Homedale has also wrapped up the Snake River Valley Conference title and will be the #1 overall seed in this year’s bracket. Sugar-Salem also clinched District 6’s Mountain Rivers Conference and the Diggers are currently the #2 team in the rankings. Sugar-Salem is on a bye, while #3 Weiser is going to pick up a 21-0 win over McCall-Donnelly via forfeit, so there’s a good chance that Weiser surpasses Sugar-Salem for the #2 overall seed, which means Weiser would host a semifinal game if the Wolverines can make a run.

The two conferences still up for grabs are District 4’s Sawtooth Central Idaho Conference and District 5’s South East Idaho Conference. The SEIC crown is simple: American Falls and Preston play each other on Friday. The winner gets the conference title and an auto bid to the playoffs. The loser will have to sweat out an at-large bid, as American Falls is 10th and Preston 11th in this week’s rankings.

In District 4, Kimberly faces Gooding in the season finale on Friday. Wood River does the same with Filer. A win by Kimberly gives the Bulldogs the outright SCIC title. A win by Gooding, coupled with a loss by Wood River, means the Senators finish in first place. And if Gooding and Wood River both win? It sets up a three-way tie for first, with all three teams having beaten each other during the season (Kimberly over Wood River, Wood River over Gooding, Gooding over Kimberly). In that scenario, the three would duke it out in a Kansas City Tiebreaker. This is the only path forward for Wood River, it appears, as the Wolverines are currently ranked #13 by MaxPreps, which is not high enough to earn an at-large bid.

CLASS 3A

5 District Champions receive auto bids
District 1-2 will receive a second auto bid
6 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
First round byes will be given to the top 4 District Champions by MaxPreps ranking
The lowest-ranked District Champion will host a first round game
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals, and can choose game site (either home or neutral)

There are three true winner-take-all conference title bouts on Friday night. Priest River travels to Grangeville for the Central Idaho League title, Declo entertains Buhl for the Canyon Conference crown and West Side will battle Malad for the South East Idaho Conference championship.

Five of the teams mentioned there (#1 West Side, #2 Declo, #5 Priest River, #6 Buhl and #7 Grangeville) are safely in the playoffs at this point, but a conference title would give each team a chance at a first-round bye. The fifth-ranked conference champion by MaxPreps ranking would have to play in the first round of the playoffs, but they would at least have a home game.

But what about Malad, you’re asking? Inexplicably, the Dragons have fallen to #13 in MaxPreps and wouldn’t make the playoffs at this moment. Malad fell to #2 Declo 14-0 last week, and yet #12 Ririe, a team Malad has beaten this year, moved ahead of them for the last spot. Ririe is expected to get a win against Firth in the Bulldogs’ season finale, which puts a lot of pressure on Malad to perform well against #1 West Side. Would a close loss to the #1 team be enough to move Malad ahead of Ririe? Well, last week they lost to the #2 team in a fairly close game and they lost ground, so the math doesn’t seem super reliable at this point. It’s crazy to imagine a team could go from playing for a conference title to missing out on the playoffs, but that is a real possibility for the Dragons. They need to win against West Side to assure their spot.

Finally, there’s District 3’s Western Idaho Conference. Melba, Nampa Christian and New Plymouth have all beaten each other this year. Melba has already picked up a win this week over Parma via forfeit, and New Plymouth and Nampa Christian are each expected to win their games against Payette and Marsing, respectively.

If that were to occur, all three teams would finish with identical 4-1 WIC records, and the tie would be settled via a points differential tiebreaker, capped at 12 points. Here’s how everyone did this year:

Melba – L to New Plymouth 18-14 (-4); W over Nampa Christian 21-9 (+12); +8 total
New Plymouth – W over Melba 18-14 (+4); L to Nampa Christian 21-15 (-6); -2 total
Nampa Christian – L to Melba 21-9 (-12); W over New Plymouth 21-15 (+6); -6 total

In that scenario, Melba would win the three-way tie. New Plymouth could still win the WIC with a win over Payette and a Nampa Christian loss to Marsing. That would put both Melba and New Plymouth at 4-1, and New Plymouth would have the head-to-head win over Melba. Nampa Christian cannot finish in first place. All three teams are comfortably in the playoff field, though.

CLASS 2A

5 District Champions receive auto bids
7 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
First round byes will be given to the top 4 District Champions by MaxPreps ranking
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals
If a conference champion is playing a team that did not win its conference in the quarterfinals, the conference champion will host

#3 Prairie has claimed the Whitepine League title and #7 Garden Valley has clinched the Western Idaho Conference crown. The other three district titles are up for grabs. #5 Wallace will travel to #21 Lakeside for the Scenic Idaho Conference title, #1 Hagerman and #2 Raft River will clash for first place in the Snake River Conference and #6 Butte County will face #12 Grace for the High Desert Conference crown.

Hagerman, Raft River, Wallace and Butte County are in no matter what happens due to their strength in the MaxPreps rankings. Grace is right on the cut line at #12. A win would obviously earn Grace the auto bid, but would a loss to a highly ranked team be enough to hold off #13 Tri-Valley for the final at-large spot. Tri-Valley plays a similarly ranked opponent in Garden Valley, so the battle between Grace and Tri-Valley for the last spot could be a tight one. Lakeside’s only chance of advancing is to upset Wallace and steal an auto bid.

CLASS 1A

#1 Kendrick has wrapped up the Whitepine League title and #3 Carey has done the same in the Sawtooth Conference. The other three district titles are still to be determined.

#4 Coeur du Christ will face #11 Clark Fork the North Star League championship. Both teams are currently in the playoff field, although the Wampus Cats are fairly close to the cutoff line. Coeur du Christ already defeated Clark Fork once this year in a non-conference game, 46-14. Would another similar result be enough to keep Clark Fork in the bracket?

Meanwhile, #6 Council and #5 Salmon River clash for the Long Pin Conference title. Both teams are comfortably in the playoff field at this point, although the winner may not receive a first-round bye (only the top four conference champions by MaxPreps earn that honor).

Finally, in District 5-6’s Continental Divide Conference, Rockland battles North Gem. A win by the Bulldogs gives the Rockland the outright title. A win by North Gem would trigger a three-way tie between Rockland, North Gem and Mackay (who is idle this week). Mackay already defeated North Gem and Rockland already defeated Mackay, so all three teams would have identical 3-1 RMC records.

In that scenario, we would head to a point-differential tiebreaker among the three teams. Unlike the other point differential tiebreakers we’ve seen, though, this one doesn’t have a margin of victory cap. So Rockland’s 61-8 win over Mackay looms large. Mackay, for its part, only beat North Gem by a score of 40-34.

So ahead of the Rockland-North Gem showdown, the point differentials are:

Rockland (+53)
North Gem (-6)
Mackay (-47)

Essentially, North Gem would need to beat Rockland by 30 points or more to lower Rockland’s differential enough to edge ahead. A win by North Gem by 29 points or fewer would still give the crown to Rockland. Mackay is basically out of the running by this point.

And that’s important because right now Mackay is the last team in at #12 overall. North Gem is currently at #15, so the only path forward for the 5-3 Cowboys is a 30-point win over Rockland, it appears.

And while Mackay is on a bye this week, Genesee (the #13 team and breathing down Mackay’s neck) was able to hastily arrange a week 10 matchup with St. John-Endicott (Washington). The Bulldogs are banking on a win being enough to move Genesee past Mackay. It’s going to be a stressful weekend for the Miners.

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